Zelenskyy says no energy truce reached with Russia despite Trump statement

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has received no commitment from Russia to stop striking its energy infrastructure, contrary to a statement by US President Donald Trump declaring the two countries had reached an energy truce, according to his address at the Warsaw Security Forum Oct. 12 quoted by Interfax-Ukraine.

"We did not see anywhere that they, [Russia], supported this truce, and we did not see it in their actions either, since they struck a number of our energy facilities," Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine's energy group Naftogaz said Oct. 12 that Russia attacked the group's gas production infrastructure in the Kharkiv region overnight.

"We hope that President Trump, whom we support in the issue of this energy truce, will be able to convince Putin to agree to this proposal," the Ukrainian President said, adding that if there is no energy truce, Ukraine "will respond" this winter.

Zelenskyy said that Russia must stop striking Ukraine's energy system and killing Ukrainians if it wants Ukraine to halt its strikes on Russian oil refineries and oil exports.

"Ukraine is ready to refrain from striking Russian energy infrastructure, and we count on the same readiness from Russia," Zelenskyy said Oct.11 in a video statement, adding that previous requests for de-escalatory steps had so far gone ignored.

In the past week, Ukraine has counted more than 200 strikes on its electricity generation and transmission facilities, and another 17 on its oil and gas infrastructure, according to Zelenskyy.

Ukraine's drones have struck Russia's oil refineries, taking out swathes of the country's fuel production capacity and forcing it to issue export bans to preserve domestic supply.

Recent targets have included Russia's Volgograd, Salavat and Omsk refineries, as well as the Astrakhan gas condensate processing plant along the Volga River.

Trump said on his social media platform, Truth Social, Oct. 11 that an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine would be "effective immediately." "Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" his statement read.

The US has pointed to Ukraine's attacks as the reason for soaring international energy prices, which have become a concern for Trump ahead of the midterm elections.

"The roots of the crisis lie in the Middle East. Everyone understands this perfectly well," Zelenskyy said Oct.12, according to a post in his Telegram channel.

The US said it has paused sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, following an announcement by Trump that Moscow had agreed to release 4.8 million metric tons of the motor fuel into the global market.

"I do not believe the volume of diesel Russia exports will affect the price. After all, we see that they currently export between 300,000 and 500,000 tons per month—whereas global consumption stands at 120 million tons per month. What kind of impact could that possibly have? I don't think it has any," Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine's President suggested the US should offer a "diesel deal" to Ukraine, not only to Russia.

"After all, we have a say in whether those ships sail or not, and whether those refineries operate or not. If that is the case, let's do it," Zelenskyy said.

The announced arrangement for Russia to supply diesel to the "American and global marketplace" is unlikely generate a significant increase in overall diesel supply on its own, according to S&P Global Energy CERA.

"The cited volumes—300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 tons in November, and 1 million tons thereafter—are broadly in line with, or below, Russia's current diesel exports. The primary constraint on Russian diesel exports is the physical availability of refining capacity. A sustained recovery in Russian diesel production would require an end to drone attacks on its refineries," CERA's head of Eurasia and Africa refining coverage Tanya Stepanova said.

Almost half of Russian primary refining capacity was offline as of the end of September, according to CERA.

"A bearish effect on Northwest European/US Atlantic Coast diesel cracks may be immediate upon market opening, but it will only last as long as a ceasefire holds and as long as Russia continues to have diesel available for export," said CERA analysts James Bambino and Richard Joswick in an Oct. 11 report.

According to CERA estimates, roughly half of Russia's refinery capacity is offline due to Ukrainian attacks, causing diesel exports to fall to about 100,000-150,000 b/d in recent months. Of that, only 10% has left the Atlantic Basin, with high freight rates restricting flows to markets like Asia.