Russia September crude exports rise 8% on month, despite fresh sanctions

Russia exported 4.088 million barrels/day of seaborne crude in September, up 8% month over month and up 3% year over year, despite ongoing sanctions, ship tracking data from S&P Global Energy showed Oct. 5.

US President Donald Trump signed legislation on Sept. 18 allowing him to impose tariffs of up to 100% on goods imported from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil or gas by volume, and to impose sanctions on shadow fleet vessels used to evade sanctions.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Sept. 21 that it "does not help in reviving our bilateral relations, nor is it likely to facilitate successful progress toward a settlement in Ukraine," in a call with reporters broadcast on the Kremlin's telegram channel.

India and China are the biggest buyers of Russian crude. The Indian foreign ministry said it will monitor the situation and is committed to ensuring that the country's energy requirements are met. The Chinese ministry of commerce said Sept. 19 that it opposes unilateral sanctions that lack a basis in international law as well as secondary sanctions.

Russian seaborne crude exports to India in September dropped 59% month over month and 51% year over year to 816,000 b/d, while exports to China climbed 22% month over month and 27% year over year to 1.415 million b/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

Exports to unknown destinations surged to 709,000 b/d in September, up from 24,000 b/d in August and up from zero a year earlier, CAS data showed. Exports of Russian crude bound for ship-to-ship transfer operations in the Far East dropped 43% month over month and 56% year over year to 142,000 b/d, the data showed.

Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said Sept. 24 that Russia will produce 494 million metric tons of oil in 2026, according to a government statement. This is equivalent to about 9.92 million b/d and would be a drop of around 3.5% from 2025 levels of 512 million mt.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Russian Urals crude on a FOB basis at Primorsk at $91.85/b Oct. 2, a discount of $35.11/b to Dated Brent. The discount averaged $29.55/b in September, against a five-year average of $20.79/b.

Diesel ban

Russia decided to extend a full diesel export ban until the end of October, according to Russian newspaper Vedomosti, citing two sources familiar with the matter.

Restrictions on producers have been extended to ensure fuel supply to the domestic market, Vedomosti reported.

The ban for non-producers will remain in place until the end of January 2027. The same deadline applies to all gasoline exports, according to the Russian government decree.

Russia's seaborne exports of refined products in September fell 11% month over month and 42% year over year to 1.075 million b/d, amid continued attacks on its refining infrastructure.

Exports to China dropped 56% month over month and 49% year over year to 109,829 b/d, while exports to Egypt grew 18% month over month and 31% year over year to 150,775 b/d, CAS data showed. Egypt is a key transshipment hub for Russian barrels.

Russian presidential envoy for investment and economic cooperation Kirill Dmitriev said that US diesel prices will rise as a result of US sanctions legislation.

"US Congress sanction threats and [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy's attacks are affecting global energy markets and driving US diesel prices to a projected $8+ a gallon on election day," he said in a post on social media platform X Sept. 20.