Russian August crude exports fall on month amid Black Sea attacks

Russian crude exports in August fell 12% month over month to 3.837 million barrels/day, amid a plunge in Black Sea loadings and a fall in deliveries to India, according to ship and cargo tracking software.

Exports from Russia's sector of the Black Sea fell from 849,900 b/d in July to 380,300 b/d in August, and exports from the Russian Baltic region rose from 1.839 million b/d in July to 1.870 million b/d in August, data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea showed Sept. 3.

Total Russian exports in August were 12% higher year over year.

Multiple drone attacks have targeted CPC infrastructure and tankers loading from the network at the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Sept. 3 that Russia will increase oil output after maintenance is completed at refineries, the Tass news agency reported.

"We are currently seeing a partial decline in production volumes compared to the forecast, this is partly due to the underutilization of refineries due to unscheduled maintenance," Novak told reporters, according to the report.

Russian exports to India in August were 810,000 b/d, down 59% month over month and down 38% year over year. Exports to China were 980,000 b/d, up 9% month over month and down 17% year over year, CAS data showed. Deliveries to Egypt, a key transshipment hub for Russian barrels, leapt 319% month over month to 935,000 b/d, CAS data showed.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the premium for carrying a cargo of crude on a shadow fleet Suezmax from the Black Sea to West Coast of India over that on a compliant vessel at $235,856/day Sept. 2.

Russia had aimed to increase crude and condensate output in 2026 by about 2% to 525 million metric tons, equivalent to about 10.543 million b/d.

"Exports are stable, and we are maximizing usage of our export infrastructure capacity, which has been expanded in recent years, including for maritime transport," Novak said.

Platts assessed Urals crude on a FOB basis at Primorsk at $75.63/b Sept. 2, a $22.86/b discount to Dated Brent. The five-year average for the discount is $20.63/b.

Products rise

Russian exports of refined products in August rose 14% month over month to 1.229 million b/d, a 42% decrease year over year.

This came even as analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA estimated that nearly half of Russia's refining capacity was estimated to be offline at the end of August. They expect Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries to continue and run rates to remain low, averaging 4.15 million b/d in the fourth quarter.

Only 10% of Russian refineries hit by Ukrainian attacks require repairs as of early September, according to President Vladimir Putin, despite intensifying drone strikes on the country's oil infrastructure in August.

"Just last night, there were attempts to strike three more oil refineries. They didn't succeed. That's because those facilities are already protected," Putin said Sept. 1 at a press event in Kyrgyzstan, according to a video published on the Kremlin's website.

"That doesn't mean nothing can ever get through, but the level of protection is on a completely different scale," Putin said.

Exports to China were 249,853 b/d in August, up 68% month over month and up 30% year over year. Exports to Egypt were 388,420 b/d in August, up 145% month over month and up 132% year over year, CAS data showed.