Nigeria aims to send all local crude to refining sector by 2030: regulator

Nigeria aims to allocate all its crude production to its domestic market by the end of the decade as local refining capacity continues to grow, the state downstream oil regulator said.

Africa's largest oil producer pumped 1.74 million barrels/day of oil in June, and aims to grow that to 3 million b/d by 2030. The country has historically sent most of its oil to refiners in Europe and Asia, but is increasingly eyeing downstream growth to boost its energy security and national revenue.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) said in a late Aug. 9 statement that the country's domestic refining capacity is now about 1.125 million b/d, and that it has engaged the country's upstream regulators to enforce legal provisions obliging local producers to supply the domestic market.

The 700,000 b/d Dangote refinery is currently the only commercial-scale plant operating in the country, although three smaller modular refineries — Waltersmith, Edo, and Aradel — were also operating in June, according to a recent fact sheet from the regulator.

Additionally, the Nigerian government has four state-owned facilities, although all are currently offline.

NMDPRA CEO Rabiu Umar said with the privately owned Dangote refinery helping boost domestic refining capacity, especially with its plans to double processing capacity to 1.4 million b/d, the agency is aiming to quickly resolve issues related to crude oil supply shortages to local refineries, and ensure compliance with the Domestic Crude Supply Obligations (DCSO) of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

"The Federal Government wishes to end the pattern where much of the country's crude [volumes] are exported and refined products imported," Umar said. "We are engaging the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to ensure that every molecule of our 3 million b/d that we hope to achieve in the coming years is refined locally."

According to new NUPRC data published Aug. 10, 53.7 million barrels of Nigerian crude were supplied to domestic refiners in the second quarter, of which 52.6 million went to Dangote. According to the upstream regulator, Dangote was offered a higher volume of 68.1 million barrels that would have fully met its crude needs.

Dangote feedstock needs

Dangote — which supplies as much as 90% of Nigeria's refined products — has noted that securing sufficient, reliable crude supply has been an issue in the past, and as a result, the plant has sought international sources to fuel its expansion.

The state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Co. was originally meant to supply the majority of its crude, but was restricted upon the launch of the refinery in 2024 by its forward selling.

The PIA, which took effect in 2021, empowers the NUPRC to impose DCSOs on upstream operators and licensees and to mandate that a specified percentage of their produced crude and condensate be allocated for local sale.

A spokesman for the NUPRC confirmed to Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, Aug. 10, that talks were ongoing with relevant government agencies regarding enforcement.

"We have been holding meetings involving the NMDPRA, Ministry of Finance, and crude suppliers on the enforcement of this provision of the law," the NUPRC spokesman said.

The NUPRC revealed in May that upstream producers in Nigeria offered a total of 68.7 million barrels of crude oil to domestic refiners in Q1 2026, but ultimately supplied less than half of that.

The commission blamed the shortfall between volumes offered and actual deliveries on pricing gaps between producers and domestic refiners.