US gasoline prices climb despite EPA efforts to ease stricter summer specifications

Average spot prices for US gasoline on the Gulf Coast, Atlantic Coast, Midwest, and West Coast jumped 87-119 cents/gal year over year during March-July 2026, despite the US Environmental Protection Agency's expanded fuel waiver framework designed to provide price relief.

The rising prices coincided with tighter gasoline inventories, strong export demand, refinery disruptions and elevated crude oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, creating market conditions in which regulatory flexibility could not offset fundamental supply-demand pressures.

Los Angeles CARBOB posted the largest increase, averaging 353.52 cents/gal during March-July 2026 compared with 234.18 cents/gal in the same period 2025, according to Platts data.

Benchmark New York Harbor Buckeye RBOB rose 109.02 cents/gal to average 314.26 cents/gal, during March-July 2026, compared with 205.24 cents/gal during the same period in 2025.

US Gulf Coast benchmark CBOB 87 prompt pipeline rose 102.02 cents/gal to average 297.96 cents/gal compared with 195.94 cents/gal in March-July 2025.

In the Midwest, Chicago pipeline CBOB prices rose 101.44 cents/gal to average 304.38 cents/gal, and Group 3 suboctane rose 87.50 cents/gal to 290.79 cents/gal according to Platts data.

Supply tightens on strong export demand

US gasoline inventories during March-July 2026 reflected tighter supply conditions compared to the prior year, according to US Energy Information Administration data.

Stocks fell from 249.48 million barrels on March 6 to 209.66 million barrels in the week ended July 31, 2026, according to EIA data. The July 31 level was the low point in the March-July period and well below levels typically seen at the end of July, EIA data also showed.

Midwest gasoline inventories declined significantly during the driving season, falling from roughly 61.1 million barrels in late February to 44.99 million barrels by mid-May, and approaching the five-year low of 43.7 million barrels.

Similarly, USAC inventories for the week ended July 31 were down nearly 14.7 million barrels since the beginning of March and are 5.7 million barrels below year-ago levels.

However, gasoline production remained strong during the March-July 2026 period, with US output 1.5 million barrels above 2025 levels and refiners operating at 96.5% utilization in early August.

Exports also were elevated, with domestically produced gasoline moved via pipeline within the US competing with strong demand and prices in export markets.

Gasoline exports from the US have averaged 910,000 b/d since March, EIA data shows, up from 830,000 b/d during the same period of 2025.

The import-dependent USAC experienced supply pressure from slow import arrivals over the past five months. USAC gasoline imports have averaged 333,000 b/d from March through July, down from 545,000 b/d for the same period of 2025, EIA data showed.

The USWC also faced supply pressures from ongoing refinery maintenance and closures during the March-July period. USWC gasoline stocks grew by about 1 million barrels during the March-to-July period but are down 1.5 million barrels from a year ago, EIA data showed.

Extended EPA waivers

The EPA initially announced nationwide fuel waivers on March 25, citing extreme and unusual supply disruptions linked to reduced US refining capacity and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. The agency since then has extended the waiver numerous times, most recently through August 28, 2026.

The EPA's April 13 notice waived federal enforcement of state boutique fuel requirements and added provisions aimed at improving supply flexibility, including waiving butane blending limits for reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending and allowing distributors to redesignate CBOB as RBOB provided the fuel met the same RVP standard, aiming to broaden the supply options and support a single national gasoline pool with a uniform 10 psi RVP standard.

The expanded federal waiver did not override state-level gasoline specifications. California was among the states that did not adopt waivers, while waiver adoption in the US Northeast, typically designated as a Reformulated Gasoline region, has been inconsistent.