Maritime & Shipping, Crude Oil, Refined Products

March 30, 2025

Trump threatens tariffs on buyers of Russian oil over lack of Ukraine peace progress: NBC

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HIGHLIGHTS

Trump 'very angry' with Putin over slow Ukraine ceasefire progress

India, China, and Turkey are the biggest buyers of Russian crude

Price cap mechanism sought to avoid supply shut-ins

US President Donald Trump has threatened to hit Russia's oil consumers with new "secondary tariffs" if it obstructs a peace deal with Ukraine, he told NBC news March 30.

The US would impose up to a 50% tariff on countries buying Russian oil if President Vladimir Putin is behind a lack of progress on a ceasefire deal, NBC reported, citing an interview with Trump.

"If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia's fault [...] I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia," the President told NBC news.

The comments mark a major shift in Trump's messaging toward Russia over a peace deal and threaten major new tariffs on US imports from India, China, and Turkey, the biggest buyers of Russian crude and products since the start of G7 sanctions on Russian oil in 2022.

"That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can't do business in the United States," Trump said. "There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25 to 50 point tariff on all oil."

Trump warned he was "very angry" with Russian President Vladimir Putin for questioning the credibility of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and vowing to "finish off" Ukrainian troops March 28, according to reporting from France's AFP.

New hardline messaging from Putin has threatened to derail a peace process being prosecuted by Trump, who campaigned on achieving a quick end to the war in Ukraine.

Under former President Joe Biden, the US banned its Russian oil imports in 2022, and together with its G7 partners imposed a $60/b price cap on supplies delivered to other countries. In January 2023, the outgoing administration imposed some of its strictest measures to date to further clamp down on Russian oil revenues, banning energy companies, traders, and hundreds of tankers.

Yet the previous administration deliberately avoided directly targeting Russian trade partners to mitigate price shocks to the global oil market.

India, China, and Turkey imported a combined 3 million b/d of Russian crude in February, or 93% of its total seaborne crude exports, according to tanker tracking data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea data.

Price cap

When the G7 price cap was first imposed in 2022, Brent crude oil prices were hovering around $85/b, triggering concern over tougher measures that would shut off Russian trade flows entirely.

However in 2025, with prices back within the $70/b-$80/b range, analysts have said US policymakers might be more willing to wether price increases.

In a March 25 post on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump also threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Venezuela, which he said would involve a 25% tax on any US trade with the OPEC producer's oil and gas customers.

The US announced March 25 that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to avoid military strikes on Black Sea shipping and energy infrastructure, in a move it called a first step towards achieving a full ceasefire.

However, a separate statement from Russia demanded sanctions waivers for its agricultural exports before the agreement was enacted. Both sides have since accused one another of ongoing attacks, leaving uncertainty over the prospect of a deal.

The US and Russian presidents plan to speak again this week, Trump told NBC.

Platts last assessed Russia's Urals crude, basis FOB Primorsk, at $59.65/b Jan. 22, representing a discount of $14.3/b to Dated Brent. Platts is a part of S&P Global Energy.


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