GASTECH 2026: INTERVIEW: ExxonMobil remains bullish on long-term LNG demand

The ongoing war in the Middle East has not changed ExxonMobil's long-term bullish outlook for LNG consumption, with most conflict-driven demand destruction expected to be confined to the near term, Andrew Barry, vice president of LNG Marketing at the company, told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, in an interview.

"What's happening in the Middle East at the moment has not changed our long-term fundamental demand forecast or expectations for LNG," Barry said Sept. 14 on the sidelines of the Gastech 2026 conference in Bangkok. "We expect LNG demand to more than double by 2050 [from today]."

The mid-century outlook is somewhat more bullish than recent S&P Global Energy CERA projections, which forecast global LNG demand reaching about 793.6 million metric tons by 2050, an 84% increase from 2025 levels, as per their July forecast.

Despite recent demand destruction as price-sensitive buyers retreat from LNG amid multiyear index highs, Barry argued that this was a short-term shift. Further out, he sees "a lot of latent demand" across countries such as India, where he says there are buyers who would enter the market at lower prices.

Some of the recent decline in demand has also come from consumers in areas such as Europe pulling back on stocking, which Barry likewise sees as temporary.

"That has...dampened the effect [of lost Persian Gulf exports] a little bit but also is going to be required to be refilled as you get through this winter period," he said.

At the same time, even as soaring spot prices curb consumption, the ExxonMobil executive stressed that spot sales account for only a fraction of global volumes.

"You've got still that 70-80% of the supply that is under long-term contracts, and that's the bedrock of the supply," Barry said. "You've got many countries and customers that are getting those cargoes under the long-term price that are then able to manage that in their market."

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the JKM benchmark for LNG delivered into Northeast Asia at $29.735/million British thermal unit on Sept. 14, its highest level since December 2022.

'Pivotal year' for LNG projects

Barry framed 2026 as a "pivotal year" for ExxonMobil's LNG efforts.

The company has a 30% stake in the Golden Pass export facility in Texas, which shipped its first commissioning cargo in April. QatarEnergy holds the remaining 70% share. Barry didn't offer a specific expectation for when the first train at the 18.1 million mt/year US plant would reach full capacity, but said the other two Golden Pass trains would start up in 2027—Train 2 in the first half of the year and Train 3 in the second half.

ExxonMobil is also eyeing final investment decisions on two other LNG projects by the end of 2026: the 18 million mt/year Rovuma LNG development in Mozambique and the 5.6 million mt/ year Papua LNG project in Papua New Guinea.

Barry declined to comment on the expected start-up of another looming LNG project slated to supply the company's portfolio: Qatar's North Field East expansion. The US firm has a 6.25% stake in the development, which is set to add 32 million mt/ year of LNG capacity. Barry said the operator, QatarEnergy, was "best placed" to discuss exact timings as the work contends with the ongoing conflict in the region.

Another partner, ConocoPhillips, warned in May that the Qatari development could see months-long delays amid the war. The CEO of TotalEnergies, yet another partner, said in late April he expected North Field East to offload its first LNG cargo between late 2026 and early 2027; in February, before the war, by contrast, he had said his company was planning for the expansion to come online in the third quarter of 2026.

Despite the unprecedented ongoing trade curtailments from the Persian Gulf, Barry signaled continued confidence in Qatar and the wider region over the longer term.

"From our perspective, it doesn't change our long-term investment criteria, it doesn't change our relationship, everything that we have been working with our partners, it doesn't change that at all," he said. "We're extremely confident that the Middle East will always remain an important energy supplier for the world and that it will return."

Portfolio player

Rather than describe how much of its offtake ExxonMobil has contracted from specific facilities, Barry explained that the company sells LNG from an overall portfolio.

"We don't go and sell the LNG from a particular project, we sell it from the portfolio," he said. None of ExxonMobil's LNG sales are linked to a specific production site, according to Barry.

When it comes to contracting, the vice president said the war in the Middle East is pushing buyers to focus more on energy security. ExxonMobil, he explained, sees long-term contracts remaining a "significant" share of the LNG market.

"We see a very strong growth in demand in those long-term contracts," he said.

The company is also developing its trading arm, which Barry characterized as supplementary to its core work of developing projects.

"We're not building a trading business by itself," he said. "We're building a supply equity business that then trading supplements."

Those equity volumes could expand more in the years to come. Even as it works to ramp up and take FID on several LNG facilities in the near term, ExxonMobil continues to eye further LNG production opportunities, with the company's bullish, long-term demand outlook underpinning its interest, Barry explained.

"We will be very much looking for more opportunities for developing LNG," he said.