Global LNG trade seen rising 200 Bcm/year by 2031: IEF

Global LNG demand is expected to grow to 800 billion cubic meters/year, or about 28.2 Tcf/year, by 2031 from 600 Bcm/year in 2026, with the United States remaining the world's largest supplier, according to a new LNG market security report from the International Energy Forum.

Over the next five years, the largest increase in LNG exports comes from the US, where new supply is expected to grow at one of the fastest rates globally, according to the latest market report from the IEF, an intergovernmental organization that promotes global energy dialogue.

By 2031, the report predicts that global LNG supply will become increasingly concentrated as the largest producers continue to expand at a faster pace than newer, smaller producers. Increasing supply concentration is part of a longer-term trend in the global LNG market, the authors argued.

In 2024, the world's three largest LNG exporters accounted for about 64% of global supply, up from about 60% in 2000 – even as the number of LNG-exporting nations more than doubled.

Qatar and Australia are expected to trail the US in total export volumes through 2031, but remain among the largest suppliers globally, followed by Russia and Malaysia.

"This high degree of concentration underscores the structural dependency of global LNG market security on a limited number of countries whose production decisions, infrastructure constraints, and geopolitical positions have significant consequences for global gas markets," the report said.

Strait of Hormuz

According to the IEF, roughly 20% of global LNG supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz, primarily from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Unlike crude oil, though, no alternative maritime or pipeline routes currently exist to bring these LNG volumes to market, making shipping disruptions through the strait potentially consequential for LNG buyers globally.

Although spare liquefaction capacity globally has at times exceeded Hormuz-dependent export volumes, an analysis by the authors revealed that from 2000 to 2025, LNG export volumes moving through the strait exceeded global spare capacity for nine of those years. At its peak, "the gap reached approximately 64 Bcm in 2011, with Hormuz-dependent LNG exports of around 109 Bcm compared with only about 45 Bcm of available spare capacity elsewhere," the authors wrote.

Beyond the Strait of Hormuz, the report notes that other producing regions can still face "virtual chokepoints" resulting from feedgas availability, domestic market needs, regulations or even commercial conditions, making supply diversification especially important for LNG buyers.

Despite supply security risks posed by the global LNG trade, the IEF report makes a strong case for continued demand growth fueled in part by rapidly growing digital infrastructure, advanced manufacturing and Artificial Intelligence-enabled services. According to the authors, global data center power demand is expected to rise by 165% from 2023 to 2030, prompting a wave of investments in new power generation capacity.

In 2024, natural gas accounted for nearly 23% of global primary energy demand. The report argues that gas and LNG will continue to play an important role in global energy markets, as demand grows among both established and emerging importers.