India maps steel expansion, low-carbon shift through 2047

India is planning to more than double its steelmaking capacity over the next two decades while cutting the industry's carbon intensity and strengthening raw material security, marking a broad shift in the country's steel growth strategy under the draft National Steel Policy Vision 2047.

The draft targets crude steel capacity of 604 million metric tons/year by 2047, up from 220 million mt/year in fiscal 2025-26 (April-March), with crude steel production projected to reach 531 million mt from 170 million mt. Finished steel consumption is expected to rise to 505 million mt from 164 million mt over the same period, while per capita consumption is projected to increase to 302 kg from 116 kg.

The draft builds on the National Steel Policy 2017, which targeted 300 million mt of crude steel capacity and 230 million mt of finished steel demand by 2030-31. The Vision 2047 document projects capacity at 294 million mt and finished steel consumption at 237 million mt in 2030.

The draft policy also targets steel exports of 45 million mt by 2047.

The Ministry of Steel has sought suggestions on the draft until Oct. 30.

Growth meets transition

Alongside capacity expansions, the draft forecasts a reduction in the industry's carbon intensity.

The draft aims to lower the average emissions intensity to 1.54 metric tons of CO₂/metric ton of crude steel by 2047, down from an estimated 2.54 mtCO₂/mt. India's steel sector accounts for an estimated 10%-12% of the country's CO₂ emissions, according to the draft.

The document lays out a four-phase transition beginning with energy efficiency, renewable energy and increased ferrous scrap use over 2026-2030. Best available technologies and coal gasification take the lead during 2030-2035, followed by green hydrogen-based direct-reduced iron and carbon capture, utilization and storage from 2035 to 2040, with CCUS taking a larger role in addressing residual emissions during 2040-2047.

The 2017 policy also sought to substantially reduce the industry's carbon footprint and improve energy efficiency, but the Vision 2047 draft sets out a quantified long-term emissions-intensity target and a phased technology pathway.

Raw materials growth

The scale of the proposed expansion would also increase India's requirement for steelmaking raw materials.

Iron ore demand is projected to rise to 772 million mt by 2047 from 299 million mt in 2025 while coking coal demand is forecast at 236 million mt, more than triple the current 72 million mt requirement.

India imports about 92% of its coking coal requirement, primarily from Australia, the US and Russia. The policy proposes diversifying overseas sourcing, acquiring foreign assets, expanding domestic coal washing and optimizing coal blends to increase the use of domestic coking coal.

Ferrous scrap consumption is projected to reach 123 million mt by 2047, compared with 36 million mt in 2025-26, with the draft proposing measures to expand domestic scrap collection, processing and recycling. DRI demand is projected to increase to 143 million mt from 60 million mt.

Beyond volume growth

The policy also seeks to shift the industry's focus toward higher-value steel, modernization and greater technological self-reliance.

India's secondary steel industry, comprising about 2,550 units and accounting for about 47% of crude steel production capacity in 2025-26, has been identified for technological upgrades, improved raw material access, skill development and stronger safety practices.

On trade, the draft proposes stronger monitoring of substandard and non-conforming imports through testing, certification, traceability and real-time import monitoring, alongside remedial measures where unfair trade practices are established. It also calls for maintaining access to specialized and value-added grades that are not adequately produced domestically.

On exports, the draft sees a shift from volume-driven shipments toward diversified, value-added and sustainable products, with greater emphasis on automotive, coated, electrical and stainless steel, among other advanced grades.

The ministry intends to review the policy's demand and capacity projections periodically, preferably every five years, to account for technological developments, changing consumption patterns, trade dynamics, climate policies and global economic conditions.