INFOGRAPHIC: China's manufacturing steel demand set to rise in 2026 led by exports

China's manufacturing sector remains the primary driver of steel demand growth, supported largely by strong exports amid continued weakness in the property and infrastructure sectors.

However, rising trade barriers and softer internal demand pose risks to that momentum, as manufacturing expansion remains insufficient to fully offset the downturn in construction-related steel consumption.

Steel demand from the manufacturing sector, including machinery, automobiles, home appliances, energy and shipbuilding, is forecast at 344 million mt in 2026, up 3.3% year over year, after rising 4.7% in 2025, according to S&P Global Energy CERA. Manufacturing's share of total steel consumption is expected to increase to 52% in 2026 from 46% in 2023, CERA data showed, underscoring the sector's growing role in China's steel demand mix.