US ALUMINUM: Sector seeing mixed demand signals after volatile 2025

US packaging, electrical applications and data centers are driving demand for aluminum producers, even as demand from construction and car making falters, industry leaders said at the S&P Global Aluminum Symposium.

"There's been winners and losers, some sectors have been a little bit stronger than others, Jake Skelton, CEO of Emirates Global Aluminium Americas, told the Miami conference Jan. 2. "Building and construction has been down for the most recent quarters, but then things like data centers are a new place where aluminum is going. We're seeing things shift around. It's been kind of complex."

In 2025, President Donald Trump imposed steep 50% duties on aluminum, steel, and copper, as well as tariffs on automotive imports. His administration also imposed country-specific tariffs. The moves led to escalating trade tensions worldwide and caused major volatility in metals markets. The US aluminum sector became concerned about industry-wide demand destruction as aluminum prices began to surge. However, business leaders said they have seen a more mixed demand picture as 2026 kicks off.

Skelton emphasized that the success of aluminum businesses in the US has varied widely recently, based on the customers they serve.

"If you're heavily exposed to construction or automotive, it's probably been pretty difficult for you," he said. "But you've been in some of these other segments, data centers and also [electrical] distribution, I think you're seeing those customers have had a pretty resilient order book."

US aluminum extruders recently shared similar sentiments with Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, citing an up-and-down 2025 and varying outlooks for 2026.

High prices said unsustainable

"We haven't seen the big demand destruction that I think everyone was thinking could happen," Matt Aboud, senior vice president of strategy and business development for Century Aluminum, said on a panel. "Yes, some industries have been stronger than others, and some have been more impacted than others. I think this is the macro story with aluminum, it's got a somewhat inelastic demand curve."

Outside of the booming data center and electrical sectors, business leaders also highlighted strength in the packaging industry.

"One of the things we have seen in the market is that everything related to packaging and can sheet is very dynamic, there's a lot of demand, so it's a very attractive market currently," Bernardro Bulnes, raw materials director for Aluminum Dynamics, said.

Despite promising signs from certain end-consumers, aluminum leaders said they still believe the all-time high prices for aluminum in the US are ultimately unsustainable.

"I think long term, it's a problem," Emirates Global's Skelton said. "From our point of view, we feel for the customers. This is a pretty substantial cost increase; it's difficult to manage. I think, for us, we want to see sustainable levels long term."

Platts assessed the spot 99.7% P1020 US Aluminum Transaction Premium at $1.04 per pound plus LME cash, delivered Midwest, net 30-day payment terms, on Feb. 2.

This assessment, also known as the Midwest Premium, is nearly four times higher than year-ago levels. The rise has been primarily driven by US 50% tariffs on aluminum.