Simandou’s first shipment with 200,000-mt high-grade iron ore arrives in China

China has received its first Simandou iron ore shipment, a 200,000-mt cargo supplied by the carrier Winning Youth, Winning Consortium Simandou said in a statement on LinkedIn Jan. 18.

The cargo, consisting of the first high-grade iron ore from the Simandou project, departed Guinea's port of Morebaya Dec. 2 and reached the port of Majishan in China's Zhejiang province.

Simandou comprises four mining blocks, with interests held by the Guinean government, Rio Tinto and a Chinese-led consortium.

Simandou offers 65% Fe high-grade ore. While some market observers have dubbed it a "Pilbara killer," near-term logistical constraints and limited production challenge that view, as reported by Platts.

Simandou's planned full-scale production capacity is expected at 120 million mt/year, and exports are likely to total around 15 million mt in 2026, according to CERA analysts.

"The arrival of Simandou's ore in China also symbolizes, for the first time, the complete commissioning of the integrated chain 'mine-rail-port-maritime transport,' bringing the project into a new phase of large-scale operation," Winning Consortium Simandou said.

Those logistical challenges in the integrated chain have been among the reasons market observers remain cautious about the "Pilbara killer" narrative.

China's seaborne iron ore imports totaled 1.3 billion mt in 2025, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea. China is the world's top iron ore importer.

Australia was the largest supplier to China in 2025 at 830.9 million mt, followed by Brazil at 304.5 million mt, South Africa at 35.4 million mt and India at 26.4 million mt, CAS data showed. Australia's total seaborne exports stood at 977.3 million mt in 2025, with 85% destined for China.

Market participants said Simandou's commissioning will not materially increase oversupply in 2026 and that iron ore prices will only decline moderately next year, though they expect oversupply to intensify noticeably from 2027 onwards.

Based on a $106/dmt forecast for December 2025, CERA analysts expect iron ore prices to fall 16% to $89/dmt by December 2027. With an all-in sustaining cost in the range of $55-$60/dmt, that could push some high-cost seaborne and domestic iron ore out of the market, they added.

Platts assessed the IODEX at $106.15/dmt CFR North China Jan. 16, down 55 cents/dmt day over day, in line with tradable values and a market trade.