European gas price jumps near Eur70/MWh as Iran war enters second week

European natural gas prices surged at the start of trading March 9, with the benchmark Dutch TTF April 2026 gas contract jumping about 29% from the settle at the end of last week to just shy of Eur70/MWh as the Iran war carried into its second week, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange.

The intraday TTF price subsequently eased to around Eur60/MWh in the following hours, as of 0942 GMT, ICE data showed.

Oil prices also climbed, with the May ICE Brent crude futures contract trading around $102/barrel as of 0943 GMT, according to ICE, following weekend strikes on Iranian fuel depots.

The last time Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the month-ahead TTF gas price above Eur70/MWh was in January 2023, as Europe wrestled with the energy crisis following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

Overlapping uncertainties

The gas price surge comes as European market participants contend with several overlapping uncertainties.

Qatar's energy minister Saad al-Kaabi said late last week it would take at least "weeks to months" to resume normal LNG deliveries after the major producer announced a halt to operations March 2 amid military attacks.

While Europe only sourced a small share of its LNG from Qatar last year, market watchers expect Asian buyers in need of replacement volumes will pull more and more Atlantic basin cargoes from the continent as the outage and the curtailment of trade via the Strait of Hormuz continue.

"The longer the interruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz persists, the higher prices will likely need to rise to trigger demand destruction among European and Asian power and industrial consumers and to ensure adequate refilling of European gas inventories during the summer injection season, which currently remain near multi-year lows," Andy Sommer, head of energy market analysis & meteorology at Axpo, said in a March 9 note.

A Europe-based LNG trader shared a similar outlook.

"The relatively calmer sentiment in Europe will start to get a little more nervous," the trader said. "We're fast approaching the end of winter with ever-depleting stocks and LNG will be the fuel to fill the gap, but at what cost?"

Russia has added a further jolt.

Late last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russian LNG exporters would redirect some previously Europe-bound cargoes to Asia, Russian media reported.

The move risks depriving the EU of Russian LNG faster than member states agreed earlier this year, when they approved legislation fully phasing out Russian imports of the super-chilled fuel from the start of 2027.