Global electrification, nuclear push emerge as key to energy security: IEA's Birol

Global energy trade is experiencing a rapid shift toward electrification, renewable energy and nuclear power, in response to energy supply disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts, International Energy Agency's executive director Fatih Birol said Oct. 8.

In his video remarks at the Innovation for Cool Earth Forum conference in Tokyo, Birol described the disturbances as "the largest energy supply disruption in history," noting that countries' responses to the crisis are set to reshape energy trade.

"Many countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia and [United Arab] Emiratesm are looking for alternative routes for exports," Birol said. "The consuming countries [are looking] for new partners and also for the new fuels and technologies."

Birol said that over the last seven months, renewable power, which was already expanding swiftly, accelerated significantly, particularly in solar energy. Electric car sales demonstrated double-digit growth not only in China and Europe, but also in Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, Brazil and other countries, he said.

Looking ahead, interest in nuclear power is expected to increase, with generation projected to hit a record high, according to Birol.

"I also see that in some countries, there is an interest in coal ... We will see if it is a sustainable trend or it is limited," Birol said.

"These are market reactions to the crisis in the Middle East. But in addition to that, maybe even more importantly, countries are now reassessing their energy strategies, energy policies and energy partnerships."

New era

Birol said the global energy system at the start of the century relied on two dominant trade corridors: one transporting energy from Western Siberia to Europe, and the other passing through the Strait of Hormuz, supplying oil, gas and other commodities to Asia and beyond.

"Both of these arteries are disrupted," Birol said. "Europe has decided not to buy energy from Russia anymore. It is finished at least for the time being."

While some traffic has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, confidence in the trade has been undermined. "Once it is closed, people believe it can be closed again," Birol said.

"After the age of coal ... we have seen the age of oil and gas, where we are today," Birol said. However, electricity demand is now growing "very, very fast, driven by data centers, artificial intelligence, electric cars and an increasing number of air conditioners in the developing world."

At the UN Climate Change Conference, or COP31, in Antalya over Nov. 9-20, electrification is a key focus, Birol said, adding that the IEA had put forward a series of suggestions for the conference's main outcomes, with an electrification target ranking as its top priority.

The IEA, a strategic partner of COP31, sees energy security and decarbonization as increasingly aligned goals, according to Birol.

Electricity access

Birol emphasized the urgent need for energy access in emerging economies, pointing out that over 700 million people worldwide still lack access to electricity, with Africa being the most severely affected.

He highlighted the importance of policy choices that could increase the penetration of electrification while reducing emissions, lowering climate-related risks and enhancing energy security.

With renewable energy becoming more affordable, battery costs decreasing and nuclear energy making a comeback, Birol said he was "hopeful that the electrification of this world can bring good results, including a reduction in emissions."