Asia's top emitters show limited progress in meeting 2030 reduction targets

The top greenhouse gas emitters in Asia have submitted their inaugural biennial transparency reports (BTRs), highlighting the challenges they face on the path to achieving their 2030 emission reduction targets.

The BTR is a UN-initiated reporting instrument to track individual countries' emissions as well as progress in meeting their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), namely the climate targets committed under the Paris Agreement.

Asia's overall decarbonization progress appears far from satisfactory when examining the first batch of BTRs.

China and India

The two largest emitters, China and India, have both utilized the reduction in carbon intensity -- defined as the decrease in carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product -- as the benchmark for establishing their NDCs. By 2030, China has pledged to reduce its carbon intensity by 65% from the 2005 level, while India has committed to a 45% reduction from the same base year.

In the latest BTRs, China reported that by 2021, it had reduced its carbon intensity by 50.9% from the 2005 level. Meanwhile, India reported a 36% reduction in carbon intensity from the 2005 level as of 2020.

According to S&P Global Energy Inflection Scenario forecasts, China's carbon intensity is projected at 441.2 mtCO2 per real million dollars by 2030, slightly outperforming the NDC requirement of 446.6 mtCO2 per real million dollars. In contrast, India's carbon intensity is expected to be 618 mtCO2 per real million dollars by 2030, indicating a significant shortfall in meeting the NDC target.

The Inflection Scenario represents the most probable outcome based on a country's critical energy policies and market fundamentals.

To accelerate emission reductions, India must hasten the deployment of renewable energy sources, according to analysts.

According to India's BTR, the country aims to achieve about 50% of its installed power generation capacity from non-fossil energy sources by 2030. As of October 2024, non-fossil energy sources accounted for 211.39 GW, or 46.52% of the total power capacity in India.

For India, achieving the 50% capacity target within the next five years may appear straightforward, but the energy transition involves more than just expanding capacities. It is crucial to convert these renewable capacities into dependable power supply sources and ensure a consistent increase in demand for renewable energy.

Notably, China's BTR indicates that it has already achieved the target of installing 1,200 GW of solar and wind power generation capacities by 2030 six years ahead of time. However, in terms of carbon intensity, which relates to actual energy consumption and emissions, China only manages to meet the minimum requirement, achieving its NDC right on the due date.

Analysts said that similar to China's current efforts, India also needs to develop significantly larger energy storage capacities to manage the intermittency of renewable energy, establish transmission networks to connect supply and demand centers, and create an effective carbon market that enforces a significant price and an absolute cap on emissions from the power sector.

Indonesia

Asia's third-largest emitter, Indonesia, set an NDC target to reduce emissions by 31.89% from the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2030. According to the BTR, Indonesia's BAU emissions are projected to reach 2,598 million mtCO2e by 2030. Therefore, a 31.89% reduction would mean that the country's emissions should be capped at about 1,809 million mtCO2e by 2030.

Energy forecasts Indonesia's emissions could reach 2,176 million mtCO2e by 2030 under the most likely case, significantly deviating from its NDC.

The slow transition to renewables is also a key problem for Indonesia.

As of 2022, renewable energy accounted for 16% of the country's primary energy supplies. "Many efforts still have to be made in the next three years to meet the government target on renewable energy, which is 23% in 2025," the BTR showed.

Japan and Australia

Japan and Australia, ranked as the region's fourth and sixth biggest emitters, also faced critical challenges in meeting their NDCs.

Japan has committed to reducing its emissions by 46% by fiscal year 2030 from the FY 2013 level, which means reducing its emissions to 760 million mtCO2e by 2030, the BTR said. Energy forecasts showed that Japan's emissions are most likely to be around 937 million mtCO2e by 2030, indicating a significant gap relative to its NDC target.

Australia aims to reduce emissions to 43% below the 2005 level by 2030. The BTR projected that Australia can keep its emissions within 352 million mtCO2e by 2030 and meet the NDC target. However, the Inflection Scenario forecast suggests that the country might still be slightly off-track in achieving its NDC goals.

The efficacy of carbon policies is a key difference between these two economies.

In the past few years, Australia's Albanese government has tightened its emission regulations and effectively expedited the country's decarbonization progress. But in Japan, many critical carbon policies are still awaiting finalization, including reforms to its emissions trading scheme and strategies to utilize the UN's Article 6 market for sourcing international carbon offsets.

South Korea, Asia's fifth largest emitter, has not submitted its BTR yet due to domestic political turmoil.