INTERVIEW: Amogy sees ammonia power closing cost gap with gas in early 2030s

Power generated from green ammonia could become cost-competitive with baseload gas-fired generation around the early 2030s as ammonia production scales and carbon costs rise, Amogy CEO Seonghoon Woo told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, in an interview.

"Compared with baseload gas-fired power, ammonia-based power is probably twice as expensive today. But we expect to close that gap around the early 2030s as the green ammonia industry scales, making green ammonia more available and economical, while the price of carbon becomes more expensive," Woo said.

"If the delivered price of green ammonia can fall below $500/metric ton, that is when you really start seeing competitiveness," he said, referring to competition with gas or LNG-based power generation.

Green ammonia production costs may be around $500/mt at the low end in China and around $600/mt in India, while delivered prices could be around $600-$800/mt including logistics, Woo clarified.

A couple of years ago, public estimates for green ammonia were often in the $800-$1,000/mt range, he said, adding that recent pricing and auctions, particularly in China and India, had come in meaningfully lower. "We're encouraged to see how much further costs can fall as the industry scales," he said.

India's recent SECI green-ammonia auctions cleared at around $570-$740/mt, with most successful bids clustered between roughly $570-$640/mt, according to S&P Global Energy CERA's October low-carbon ammonia short-term outlook released Oct. 29. Eleven awards totaling 670,000 mt/year had progressed to signed 10-year supply agreements.

2030 as pivotal point

Nonetheless, Woo cautioned against treating 2030 as the year ammonia becomes the cheapest fuel. "I'm not saying 2030 will be the year ammonia becomes the cheapest fuel. But as ammonia becomes more available, carbon prices rise, and regulations tighten, people will start seeing ammonia as a realistic fuel for the future," he said.

"I see the industry's adoption of ammonia as probably a 10-20-year journey. But over the next five years, as technologies are validated and the molecule becomes cheaper, people will start adopting it more aggressively."

CERA estimated that ammonia-based power production at a 62% efficiency plant could be sustainable if low-carbon ammonia prices are below $565/mt, based on the German base power price in October, and within the range of $255/mt to $703/mt during the forecast period till 2028; direct fuel substitution against natural gas would require much lower ammonia prices up to $118/mt.

South Korea scale-up

Woo noted that Amogy had purchased 1,500 mt of green ammonia for the first phase of its South Korean ammonia-to-power project.

GS Engineering & Construction said Oct. 8 that Amun Energy, its joint venture with Amogy, had signed a contract with Lotte Fine Chemical to supply 1,500 mt of green ammonia over one year, starting in 2027, to a 1-megawatt plant in Pohang to demonstrate the technology while selling electricity to companies in the industrial complex.

Amogy and Amun Energy announced an agreement for Amogy to supply ammonia-to-power systems for the development, starting with a 1-MW pilot and scaling to 40 MW of installed capacity by 2029.

"The South Korean project has three phases: 1 MW in 2027, 10 MW in 2028 and 40 MW in 2029," Woo said.

Amogy's technology cracks ammonia into hydrogen, which can then be used to generate electricity.

Singapore deployment

In Singapore, Amogy is preparing to pilot ammonia-to-hydrogen technology while discussing potential power-generation projects with customers.

"In Singapore, we are starting with ammonia-to-hydrogen, but we are also discussing ammonia-to-power with a few potential partners. That could lead to projects of several megawatts or tens of megawatts over the next four to five years," Woo said.

Amogy and Singapore's Agency for Science, Technology and Research, or A*STAR, announced Oct. 23 that the company would pilot its ammonia cracking technology at the Low-Carbon Technology Translational Testbed, or LCT³, on Jurong Island. The module is scheduled for deployment in 2027 and is designed to produce up to 1 mt/day of hydrogen.

Amogy will provide its reformer and catalyst technologies and work with A*STAR on lower-cost catalysts to improve the economics of ammonia-based hydrogen production. Operating data from the pilot is intended to support larger-scale hydrogen and power deployments in Singapore.

Woo sees ammonia emerging as an imported energy carrier for power generation, while expecting LNG to remain part of the energy mix.

"I still believe LNG will be a meaningful energy source in 2050. But part of the role LNG plays today will transition to ammonia and hydrogen, with ammonia acting as an energy carrier," he said.