Most USGC refineries set to avoid direct hit from hurricane; exports affected

The US Gulf Coast's refinery row is likely to be spared a direct hit from Hurricane Isaias, but residual impacts from port closures and regional shipping delays are likely.

Direct impacts to US Gulf Coast refineries have been whittled down to just under 500,000 barrels/day of capacity in Alabama and Mississippi Oct. 8, down from 2.5 million b/d expected earlier this week, when the storm was seen possibly affecting refineries as far west as New Orleans and Baton Rouge.

Hurricane Isaias is forecast to strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane with winds of up to 110 miles per hour before weakening slightly ahead of landfall along the northern Gulf Coast late Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center latest Forecast Discussion Oct. 8 at 4:00 pm CT.

Southern Mississippi is expected to face hurricane-force winds, prolonged power outages and heavy rainfall, while eastern parts of the state could see damaging inland wind gusts and flash flooding.

The NHC also warned of a life-threatening storm surge threat extending west to the Mouth of the Mississippi River and significant river flooding across the Gulf Coast region through the weekend.

The US Coast Guard Captain of the Port on Oct. 8 changed the status of ports within the Mobile, Alabama, purview to Port Condition Yankee, which prompts ports to restrict or suspend ship movements, require ships not involved in cargo operations to depart, and accelerate preparations for potential port closure and severe weather impacts on maritime traffic.

"Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to bring gale-force winds (39-73 mph) into Sector Mobile's area of responsibility within 24 hours," the Coast Guard's Marine Safety Information Bulletin, released at 8 am CT, said.

Mobile port operations include the port of Pascagoula, home to Chevron's 356,440 b/d refinery, the largest refinery within the hurricane warning zone.

"We are monitoring the storm's development and track, and we are making appropriate preparations at our onshore facilities," a company spokesperson said in an Oct. 8 email.

Initial forecasts for Isaias indicated a wider, more westerly impact on the USGC, posing a potential threat to refineries in New Orleans and Baton Rouge. While those refineries are unlikely to face a direct hit, there could be some impact from the storm.

As of 4 pm CT Oct. 7, the Port of New Orleans was open and operating under Port Condition X-ray, which means the port remains open to commercial traffic, but storm-preparation measures are in effect, and further restrictions are possible if conditions worsen.

However, according to the New Orleans Board of Trade, the Bar Pilots as of Oct. 8 at 7:00 am CT advised that they would plan on taking the "last outbound at 0200 at Pilottown on 10/9/26 and the last inbound at 0400 at the Southwest Pass lighthouse. They plan on resuming normal operations at 0200 10/10/26."

The group is most directly involved with tankers carrying crude oil, gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products that enter and leave the lower Mississippi River export terminal, which serves the New Orleans and Louisiana refining and terminal network.

Exports of refined products from the USGC are likely to be stunted by the storm. According to S&P Global Energy Commodities at Sea, USGC diesel exports are averaging 1.4 million b/d so far in the week started Oct. 5, down significantly from the 2.1 million b/d seen the week earlier, as refiners, seeking to avoid any possible diesel export ban, increased exports.