Kazakhstan targets 7 million mt/year of crude via BTC pipeline

Kazakhstan aims to increase its crude supply through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which runs from Azerbaijan to Turkey, to 7 million metric tons per year, Kazakhstan's energy ministry director of oil transportation and refining, Daulet Arykbayev, told Platts on Oct. 1.

"Azerbaijan is definitely ready [to increase flows through the BTC], they are very interested," Arykbayev said on the sidelines of the KIOGE conference in Almaty, Kazakhstan, and added that the ongoing discussions with the Azerbaijani side are "purely commercial," focused on volumes and discounts for transportation services.

"Overall, they have expressed a willingness to increase volumes to 2.2 million mt/year (44,000 barrels/day), and subsequently to 2.7 million (54,200 b/d). Looking further ahead, there is even potential to reach 7 million (140,600 b/d) within the next few years," Arykbayev said.

Kazakhstan exported 1.2 million mt (24,100 barrels/day) of oil via the BTC in 2025 and around 700,000 mt (14,000 b/d) in the first half of 2026, according to KazTransOil.

Turkey and Azerbaijan are interested in loading the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to its full capacity of 1 million barrels/day, Turkish and Azeri energy ministries told Platts in September. The BTC pipeline currently carries only around 500,000 b/d-600,000 b/d, according to the Turkish energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar.

To achieve the goal, Turkey wants to attract oil from Central Asia and the Turkic countries, the Turkish minister said in September, without clarifying the potential suppliers.

Kazakhstan's Arykbayev said that the quality of Kazakh crude should not become a problem for the extension of transit through Azerbaijan.

"They have their own blend — Azeri Light — and supplies of our oil dilute it slightly. However, there is a broader trend at play: they have a great deal of idle capacity, so it ultimately comes down to the price. Filling that idle capacity can only be beneficial for the country," Arykbayev said.

Azerbaijan's Socar did not respond to Platts' request to comment on the possibility of higher BTC transit flows.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, last assessed Azeri Light CIF at $119.255/b on Sept. 30, while the CPC Blend CIF Augusta Suezmax was assessed at $105.18/b on the same day.