Hormuz flows may remain in limbo even after conflict ends: experts

The war in Iran could end in a scenario in which control of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains in limbo, which could continue to depress traffic through the chokepoint longer term, experts said June 3.

"There may be a gray zone where it's neither fully closed nor fully open," Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman, S&P Global, said during a webinar hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations.

The US Treasury Department has sanctioned the Persian Gulf Authority and warned that paying tolls to transit the strait poses significant sanctions risk.

The sanctions could create a sort of stalemate in the Strait, Edward Fishman, a senior fellow at CFR, said.

"We could actually get into this odd situation where Iran says you can't go through the strait unless you pay a toll, but then a lot of shipping companies don't want to pay the toll because they don't want to be sanctioned," Fishman said.

This scenario could permanently depress flows through the Strait even after a potential deal, Fishman said.

Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said that a variety of scenarios are possible. Certain countries will be willing to pay a toll, but it is unclear if Western shipping companies will be prepared to do so, she said.

"I struggle right now to see a path, barring a much deeper military involvement, that Iran is not exercising those operational rights," Croft said.

Flows through the Red Sea have not recovered even though the US made a deal with the Houthis, so flows through Hormuz may similarly fail to recover, Croft said.

"I do think that we are probably looking at a situation where February 27, 2026 was a peak for Hormuz," Croft said. "I think that is the high point we will ever see for flows going through the Strait of Hormuz."