US issues 30-day waiver to allow sale of already loaded Russian oil to India

The US Treasury Department on March 5 issued a 30-day waiver to allow the sale and delivery of sanctioned Russian oil that has already been loaded on vessels to India, a move that could prevent a near‑term supply disruption stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

"To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. This deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a social media post March 5.

The waiver comes as oil producers and exporters in the Middle East continue to face severe restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and from ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure. Around 15 million barrels/day of crude and 5 million b/d of oil products passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data.

"The objective is primarily to prevent a near‑term supply disruption stemming from heightened geopolitical risks, rather than to change sanctions policy. Any additional supply would help, but only at the margin, because the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz over the past five days is perhaps the largest supply disruption ever over such a short period. The aim appears to be to address immediate supply risks and calm market sentiment to some extent," said Premasish Das, executive director for oil analytics at S&P Global Energy CERA.

The waiver allows for the sale, delivery or offloading of crude and oil products of Russian origin loaded on any vessel -- including those subject to certain sanctions -- as of 0501 GMT March 5 and is valid through 0501 GMT April 5.

Price impact

At 11:02 AM Singapore time (0302 GMT), the ICE May Brent futures contract was down $1.12/b (1.31%) from the previous close at $84.29/b, while the NYMEX April light sweet crude contract was down $1.46/b (1.80%) from the previous close at $79.55/b.

"This is a near-term pressure valve that reduces the risk of a disorderly price spike as Hormuz transit risks rise, trimming bullish momentum in crude premiums and product cracks," Zhuwei Wang, director for oil with CERA, said.

There were 120 million barrels of Russian crude on the water as of March 4, 2026, CAS data showed.

Russia is ready to increase oil exports to India and China, deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said March 4, as the conflict in the Middle East raises global supply concerns.

Russian seaborne crude exports declined for a third straight month in February amid steadily increasing sanctions pressure. Outflows dropped 4% month over month in February to 3.4 million b/d, CAS data showed.

Deliveries to India fell 43% month over month to 503,000 b/d in February and shipments to China fell 7% month over month to 1.1 million b/d, the data showed. But the full picture is not yet clear; volumes showing Singapore, a top transshipment center, as the destination jumped 139% month over month to 413,000 b/d, while volumes still on ships with unknown destinations reached 563,000 b/d, up 129% over the same period.