Indian rice exporters brace for possible curbs on 100% broken WR exports

Indian rice exporters anticipate restrictions on 100% broken white rice amid rising prices for the variety and a supply crunch as demand from the ethanol and feed industries grows, sources told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, on Nov. 5.

The move could tighten India's broken rice export availability and disrupt trade flows, as rising domestic prices and competition from ethanol manufacturers and poultry-feed producers increase pressure on supplies.

India previously prohibited broken rice exports in September 2022 amid concerns about domestic availability and demand. The restrictions remained in place until March 7, 2025, when exports were restored under the free category.

Platts assessed India 100% broken WR at $336/mt FOB Kakinada Nov. 5, up 5% month over month, and 5.32% year over year.

The Indian Rice Exporters' Federation has warned that restrictions on 100% broken rice exports cannot be ruled out if domestic prices continue to rise, as international prices reportedly exceed $360/mt amid growing demand from ethanol manufacturers, poultry-feed producers, and overseas buyers.

A Kakinada-based exporter said that a meeting with the government took place on Nov. 4, during which it was indicated that the government is considering restrictions on 100% broken WR. The exporter also said that the government wants to sell rice in the domestic market rather than export it.

A Delhi-based exporter supports the potential move, saying it would be logical if the government decides to restrict 100% broken WR exports; the prices at which poultry is buying grains for feed are already quite high, above 34000 rupees/mt in South India, about 30,000 rupees/mt in Bihar, and 31000-32000 rupees/mt in Punjab.

Earlier, 70%-80% of ethanol tenders were supplied with ethanol produced from Food Corp. of India rice, but in the current season, which requires 11 billion liters of ethanol, the FCI will not provide rice beyond 7.2 million mt to ethanol players, the exporter added.

However, some exporters feel it's too early to expect such a move.

"The government might be considering such a move, but no official notification has been issued yet. There is still enough rice for the ethanol industry, so we have to wait for the final outcome," Rajesh Pahariya, chief manager of business development at Kribhco Agri Business Ltd. and National Vice President, IREF, said.

Kharif crop production is already at risk of shortage due to the recent drought in South India, Cyclone Arnab and unseasonal rains in Chhattisgarh.

India's production estimates for MY 2026-2027 (October-September) are expected to be 146 million mt, down 8 million mt year over year due to the impact of El Niño on crops, according to S&P Global Energy CERA.

India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry did not respond to Platts' request for comment.

No fresh export restrictions have been announced yet.

Market participants will closely monitor the government's decision on potential export restrictions, and any notification is likely to influence domestic broken rice availability, export offers and buying interest in the coming days.