US corn sales to Mexico lag as domestic production recovers

The US Department of Agriculture on Nov. 2 reported private export sales of 1.135 million metric tons of corn to Mexico for delivery during the September-August 2026-27 marketing year. The sale came amid market concerns that Mexican purchasing was lagging the previous season's pace.

"There has been a delay in purchases compared with the previous cycle, with sales to Mexico down by about 3.7 million mt so far this year," a market participant said. "However, the comparison is also against a record cycle that started very strongly."

Mexico's commitments for US corn totaled 9.023 million mt as of Oct. 22, down 31% from the corresponding point a year-earlier, USDA data showed.

"Mexico may need less US corn because of the recovery in domestic production and the normalization of inventories, which are changing the market landscape," a trader said.

The Agricultural Markets Consulting Group, known by its Spanish acronym GCMA, projected Mexican corn production at 23.5 million mt in 2026, up 100,000 mt from the previous year. Despite the increase, domestic output would remain well below projected consumption of 48.2 million mt.

Market participants said domestic corn production is concentrated in northern Mexico, while buyers in southern and southeastern regions typically depend more heavily on imports from the US and Brazil.

A hog-feed trader in southeastern Mexico said purchasing decisions were sometimes driven more by quality than price, with Brazilian corn generally showing lower levels of kernel breakage.

Platts assessed US corn shipments for January at FOB Gulf at $221.26/mt on Nov. 2, and from Brazil FOB Santos at $215.24/mt on Oct. 30.