Vietnam fragrant rice rallies as Philippine demand returns

Vietnamese fragrant rice prices climbed to a more than two-month high as increased Philippine buying interest emerged ahead of anticipated import permits, while Pakistani white rice prices weakened amid shifting demand between the two origins, sources told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, Oct. 30.

Platts assessed Vietnamese long grain fragrant 5% broken rice at $499/mt FOB on Oct. 30, up $28/mt week over week. The price was last above this level on Aug. 17.

"Philippine buyers are looking to buy in advance based on expectations that SPS [sanitary and phytosanitary] permits will be issued, and they plan to ship once they have the permits," a HCMC-based exporter said. "There is still uncertainty over when they will get the SPS, but this advance buying interest is already pushing DT8 prices higher, with DT8 5% now around $505-$510/mt."

The Philippines reportedly stopped issuing SPS import clearances for rice from Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar during its peak harvest period in October-November. The measure had curtailed near-term demand from the Philippines, a key destination for Vietnamese rice.

Market participants in Vietnam reported ongoing Philippine demand around $470-$480/mt FOB for Vietnamese fragrant 25% rice during the week, indicating renewed buying interest from the destination.

Another HCMC-based exporter said domestic rice prices were generally trending higher, particularly for fragrant rice, with prices rising significantly from early last week.

The exporter said further market direction would largely depend on official confirmation of Philippine rice imports and whether buying interest translates into actual orders, adding that local prices could continue rising if SPS permits were granted and issued in November and December.

The Philippines' underlying import requirement also remains substantial.

According to the latest S&P Global Energy CERA estimates, the Philippines' rice imports are forecast at 5.6 million mt in MY 2026/27, up from 4.35 million mt in MY 2025/26. Domestic production has remained stable year over year, while domestic use is projected to rise slightly by 1% to 17.80 million mt in MY 2026/27.

Pakistan faces renewed pressure

Philippine buyers' renewed interest in Vietnam follows a period of sourcing diversification that included Pakistan, which saw increased Philippine buying earlier in 2026.

Pakistan exported 77,288 mt of rice to the Philippines in June 2026, with shipments rising to 130,408 mt in July before easing to 75,766 mt in August, according to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data compiled by S&P. The Philippines was Pakistan's largest rice export destination from June to August, according to the same data source.

"Philippine demand is shifting toward Vietnam, with buyers already favoring Vietnamese rice over Pakistani origin. The Pakistani market has already corrected significantly, so I don't see much room for prices to move further down, particularly with Indian prices still above $380/mt FOB," a Pakistani exporter based in Karachi noted.

Platts assessed Pakistani 5% WR at $409/mt FOB on Oct. 30, down by $8/mt week over week, corroborating the softer price trend.

However, existing Philippine requirements were providing some near-term support to the Pakistani market even as participants remained cautious over the outlook for demand.

"With seven to eight Philippine-bound vessels lined up, the market is receiving some support from immediate covering demand. However, shifting buying patterns are likely to put pressure on Pakistani prices ahead," another Karachi exporter said.

Market participants said Vietnam is likely to continue playing a central role in Philippine rice procurement.

"Vietnam remains the central supplier to the Philippines, accounting for roughly 74% of its rice imports. Buyers may temporarily diversify towards origins such as Thailand, Pakistan and Myanmar when Vietnamese prices are high, or policies change, but Vietnam continues to be the mainstay of Philippine rice procurement," another Pakistani exporter noted.