INTERVIEW: US needs tariffs of up to 65% on imported rice, federation's CEO says

The USA Rice Federation has sought tariffs of up to 65% on rice imports from all origins to protect domestic producers from import competition and help the US rice industry regain market share, although it remains uncertain whether the Trump administration will approve the proposal, President and CEO Peter Bachmann told Platts in an interview.

The federation wants a uniform tariff approach to prevent imports from shifting between origins when duties are imposed on individual suppliers. Bachmann said the administration could be reluctant to raise tariffs before the election due to concerns about higher food costs.

"We've asked for up to 65% tariffs," Bachmann said. "I don't know if it's going to happen, but we'll see what happens in the next couple of months."

He cited existing US tariffs of 12.5% on Thai rice and 10% on Indian rice, saying the federation hoped additional duties would be imposed on top of those rates.

Competition in export markets

Bachmann said the federation's concerns extend beyond imports competing with US-grown rice in the domestic market to lower-priced Asian supplies limiting US export opportunities, particularly in Africa.

"We can't compete in Africa, and the Brazilians and Uruguayans can barely compete in Africa because what's being shipped there is from Thailand, Vietnam, and India and China, heavily subsidized and too cheap for us to compete with," he said.

He cited Indian non-basmati rice shipments to Africa at around $300/metric ton as an example of the competitive pressure US producers face.

Platts assessed US long-grain white rice, 4% broken FOB, stable at $625/mt on Oct. 28.

He said tariffs on individual origins could redirect trade to competing suppliers rather than resolve the problem.

"We want to solve it all at once and say everybody is uniformly subject to this tariff and go from there," Bachmann said.

Premium demand expected to persist

Bachmann said demand for Indian and Pakistani basmati and Thai Hom Mali rice in the US was likely to continue despite higher tariffs because domestic producers could not offer equivalent substitutes.

"Consumers that want that product and the food service that wants that product will pay the tariff, whether it's 25%, 10% or 50%, because that's what they want," he said.

He said the federation saw greater opportunities to replace imports in lower-grade segments, including generic long-grain rice, parboiled rice and some medium-grain varieties, where US supplies could compete more directly on price.

Generic jasmine rice from Thailand could also face competition from US-grown alternatives, he said. However, consumers seeking premium jasmine varieties were likely to continue buying imported rice.

US-Philippines MOU faces price challenge

Bachmann said he was not confident that the MoU signed by USA Rice and the Philippine Rice Industry Stakeholders Movement (PRISM) would translate into significant US rice purchases starting in 2027.

The MOU targets annual shipments of 100,000 metric tons starting in 2027, increasing to 200,000 mt starting in 2028.

"Not very, not very confident at all," Bachmann said when asked about the likelihood of the agreement resulting in purchases.

He said the large price difference between US rice and competing Asian supplies remained a major obstacle, adding that the MOU did not specify steps to achieve the proposed volumes.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Thai 25% broken white rice at $448/mt FOB Oct. 29, unchanged, while India was assessed stable at $383/mt FOB, Myanmar at $453/mt FOB, up $14/mt week over week, and Pakistan at $379/mt FOB, down $4/mt day over day.

"I think it's going to rely on business-to-business conversations in order for that to happen, if it happens," he said.

Bachmann identified Southern US long-grain rice as the most likely source for larger shipments, while California-grown Calrose could find niche opportunities with hotels and restaurants serving sushi and Japanese cuisine. Some US fragrant rice and generic long-grain rice could also find buyers in the Philippines, he said.

He added that US rice suppliers could differentiate themselves through quality, food safety and sustainability, although price remained a major disadvantage against Asian exporters. US suppliers can also provide high-quality packaging in various formats and specifications to meet buyers' requirements, he said.

Farmer profitability key uncertainty for 2027

Bachmann said keeping US rice farmers profitable would be the industry's biggest challenge heading into 2027, with fertilizer and diesel costs likely to influence planting decisions.

"Our biggest uncertainty is going to be production costs," he said. "What happens to fertilizer prices? What happens to diesel prices between now and next March when our farmers start planting and making planting decisions in January?"

Farmers could shift between rice and soybeans depending on relative returns, while stronger corn prices could also encourage planting changes, he said.

Bachmann said farmers could switch between rice and soybeans relatively easily because much of the equipment was the same. However, prolonged periods of lower rice acreage could threaten mills and drying facilities, reducing the industry's ability to recover.

The federation is also monitoring heavy rainfall and the potential effects of El Niño on South American planting and yields, which could influence global rice supply and prices in 2027, he said.