Indian rice exporters anticipate firm outlook as Cyclone Arnab damages crop: sources

The Indian rice market could firm as Cyclone Arnab is expected to damage crops and delay the paddy harvest in Andhra Pradesh, while unseasonal rains in Central India could also delay the harvest, sources told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, Oct. 29.

"Cyclone Arnab has caused extensive damage to crops, houses, roads and power infrastructure across several districts of Andhra Pradesh," News on Air reported Oct. 29.

"Preliminary estimates indicate damage to over 70,000 hectares of paddy and more than 10,000 hectares of horticultural crops," the report said.

Manoj Yadav, senior general manager of Mewah Group, said, "Indian prices overall are expected to be bullish amid the impact of the recent cyclone. We are only eyeing the Chhattisgarh crop harvest right now, which could lead to some corrections only in Parboiled. [White rice] is expected to remain firm and bullish."

A Kakinada-based exporter said they expect a firm market due to the cyclone's impact, while a Nagpur-based seller said prices had skyrocketed across all states due to the cyclone.

A Dubai-based trader said they were also expecting the market to move higher; however, West African markets are currently quiet.

Platts assessed India Parboiled 5% at $375/mt FOB Kakinada Oct. 29, up $4/mt week over week and $3/mt down month over month.

Unseasonal rains in Central India

"It is premature to assess the full extent of the damage and its impact on paddy crops due to the unseasonal rainfall, as rains are still continuing in several areas," Mukesh Jain, president of the Rice Exporters Association Chhattisgarh (TREACG), said. "A comprehensive assessment can be made only after the rainfall subsides and the ground situation becomes clearer."

Some sellers anticipate a delay in the paddy harvest and a firm outlook amid limited supply.

A Raipur-based exporter said there was a high chance the market would firm up, as untimely rains in Chhattisgarh would damage crops and delay the harvest.

A miller based in Raipur said they expect the harvest to be delayed by at least 15 days, with further limited supply in the market; however, the extent of crop damage is yet to be ascertained.

Amid the El Niño outlook, India's rice production has declined to 146 million metric tons in MY 2026-27, down 5% year over year, according to S&P Global Energy CERA.