Brazil soybean meal prices post sharpest daily drop since April after presidential election

Brazilian soybean meal export prices posted their steepest daily decline since mid-April on Oct. 26 and fell to their lowest level since late August, as domestic markets were rattled by the surprise reelection of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed FOB Paranaguá soybean meal for December shipment at $384.92/metric ton on Oct. 26, down $14.22/mt day over day, the largest daily decline since prices fell $24.58/mt on April 16, when ample supplies in both Brazil and Argentina weighed on the broader market.

The decline pushed spot FOB Paranaguá soybean meal prices to their lowest level since Aug. 24, according to Platts data.

The move followed the market reaction to Lula's reelection in the Oct. 25 presidential vote. Amid uncertainty over the direction of Brazil's fiscal policy, the US dollar surged more than 10% against the Brazilian real during Oct. 26 trading, supporting domestic soybean origination while also weighing on Chicago Board of Trade futures, which fell nearly 2%.

According to one market participant, Brazilian producers sold around 800,000 mt of soybeans on Oct. 26, split between old- and new-crop supplies. The volume was significant for a single day, with a similar amount having been traded over the entire previous week, the participant said.

"Prices rose Real 5/bag [in the interior]," the participant said, referring to the stronger incentive for farmers to sell.

Exports

Despite the decline in FOB prices and the resulting improvement in Brazil's competitiveness in the international market, sources said the country's soybean meal export program was unlikely to see significant changes.

"I don't think it changes much for soybean meal," a trader said.

Analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA expect Brazil to export 26.50 million mt of soybean meal in the current 2025-26 marketing year (January-December), rising to 28 million mt in 2026-27, with planting for the new crop underway.

Preliminary data from Brazil's Foreign Trade Secretariat show soybean meal exports totaling 1.10 million mt during the first 11 working days of October (out of 22). The daily shipment pace is up 19% week over week and up 3% year over year.

"If sustained through month-end, exports would reach roughly 2.30 million mt, compared to our current forecast of 2.20 million mt," CERA analysts said in the Global Soybean Complex Short-Term Outlook report issued on Oct. 23.

Brazil is the world's second-largest soybean meal exporter, behind Argentina.