Tight Black Sea supply could spur Turkey to mull easing GMO corn rules: traders

The Turkish government may consider easing regulations on genetically modified corn amid tight Black Sea supplies, raising the prospect of wider access to corn from the Americas, traders told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

Turkey could bring its GMO approvals closer to those of the EU, market participants said, although they had received no official confirmation from the government.

The country's Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry could not be reached for comment Oct. 21.

"Eastern European corn prices are expensive compared with the Americas," a buyer at a Turkish feed mill said. "We can't import from the Americas at this moment because of the GMO issue, but there are rumors that this will be resolved."

The buyer said unapproved genetic traits currently prevent imports from the Americas. "If the government allows [the same traits] as EU regulations, it's possible," the buyer said, adding that Turkey's rules were stricter than those of the EU.

The buyer also warned that limited Black Sea shipments could create supply problems after January, strengthening the case for broader import access.

A Turkish importer said an easing of the regulations was under discussion but was unlikely to happen soon. "This is on the table, but it will take time — not before January-February, I guess," they added.

Some sources were more cautious. "This is market expectation, honestly," a Turkish broker said, adding that he had heard nothing from the government.

A second importer said the feed industry had been seeking regulatory changes for several years. "This is not new. The feed industry association has been trying since 2022-23," the importer said. Access to US and Brazilian corn could help Turkey meet its import needs amid tighter regional supplies, they added.

A second Istanbul-based broker was less optimistic, saying previous attempts to ease the rules appeared to have failed. The broker said import quotas could emerge in November-December or January-February, but stressed that the eventual arrangements remained uncertain and might not include supplies from the Americas.

If additional genetic traits were approved, the ministry could grant state grain agency TMO an import license or allocate a tariff quota to private-sector importers, a source said.

Uncertainty weighs on buying

Turkey's domestic corn harvest was under way, while uncertainty over a possible regulatory change was discouraging some buyers from making further purchases. "Probably because of this, some companies are not willing to buy more," the feed mill buyer said.

Turkey continued to purchase Romanian corn and Ukrainian supplies shipped through the Danube, remaining a key destination for non-GMO corn from Ukrainian and Romanian ports.

Recent bookings, however, reflected positioning by a small number of importers rather than a broad recovery in demand, according to the second broker, who estimated Turkey's total import requirement at 3.8 million-4.2 million mt. Purchases so far represented only a fraction of that volume, the broker said.

"There was a bit of a buying spree in corn, with three or four companies booking quite substantial volumes between them. However, the prices they booked at were well below today's levels," the broker said.

"At this stage, I think it is more accurate to say that we have seen speculative buying in Turkey rather than real, broad-based demand for corn," the broker said.

Platts assessed corn from Romanian and Bulgarian ports, FOB CVB, at $274/mt and Brazil corn FOB Santos at $219.67/mt on Oct. 20.