El Nino strengthens in Pacific, may persist into Jan-March 2027: NOAA

El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean have intensified, with sea surface temperatures above the threshold and a greater than 83% chance of a very strong event during January-March 2027, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a statement Oct. 8.

Market experts warned of potentially significant effects on farm productivity in Australia, India, Indonesia, parts of South Asia and parts of South America.

According to the agency, sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded 4 degrees Celsius in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific in September.

"Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950. With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed," the agency said in the statement.

El Niño may lead to lower rainfall and higher temperatures across Australia, Indonesia, India, and parts of South Asia. Conversely, some parts of southern South America and the southern US may see higher rainfall, the World Meteorological Organization said.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences forecast wheat production in marketing year 2026-27 (October-September) at 29.9 million metric tons, down 17% year over year, in its September quarterly report.

Wheat, along with other grains, is a water-dependent crop, and poor rainfall could reduce output over the next year, Australian traders said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Australian premium white wheat at $304/mt Oct. 8, unchanged day over day, while it assessed Australian standard white wheat at $282/mt Oct. 8, down $6/mt day over day.

The US Department of Agriculture, in its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, forecast Brazil's soybean output in MY 2026-27 (October-September) at 186 million mt, up 3% year over year.

Platts assessed Brazil SOYBEX FOB Santos at $527.85/mt Oct. 8, up 37 cents/mt day over day.

The USDA projected US soybean output in MY 2026-27 (September-August) at 122.99 million mt, up 6% year over year.

Platts assessed SOYBEX FOB New Orleans at $515.33/mt Oct. 8, down $3.67/mt day over day.

The USDA also projected Brazil's corn output in MY 2026-27 (March-February) at 139 million mt, down 0.7% year over year.

Platts assessed Brazil corn FOB Santos at $230.01/mt Oct. 8, down 29 cents/mt day over day.

The USDA also projected US corn production in MY 2026-27 (September-August) at 406.75 million mt, down 5.9% year over year.

Platts assessed US corn CIF New Orleans at $226.85/mt Oct. 8, up $1.25/mt day over day.