CS Brazil sugar output set to fall as persistent rains disrupt harvest: survey

Data for Brazil's Center-South sugar production is expected to show a sharp decline in the second half of September as persistent rainfall curtailed harvesting activity and weighed on cane availability, according to a Platts survey of 10 analysts published Oct. 9.

Sugar output is projected at 2.70 million metric tons, down 14.3% year over year, while the cane crush is expected to reach 38.73 million mt, a decline of 5.5% from the same period last year. Estimates for cane processing ranged from 37 million mt to 40.52 million mt.

Market participants reported that rainfall prevented harvesting equipment from accessing fields for an estimated 2.5 days during the second half of September, bringing total weather-related disruptions for the month to about 8.5 days. The losses have reinforced concerns about the pace of harvesting during the remainder of the crop cycle, particularly as forecasts continued to point to a potentially strong El Niño event through late 2026.

Industry expectations also pointed to a lower sugar mix, with mills projected to allocate 50.28% of available cane to sugar production, down from 51.26% a year-earlier.

Meanwhile, ethanol economics remained less attractive than sugar production. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed hydrous ethanol ex-mill Ribeirão Preto at the equivalent of 17.08 cents/pound in raw sugar terms, while the front-month NY11 sugar contract settled at 20.25 cents/lb, leaving sugar with a premium of 3.17 cents/lb over hydrous ethanol on a sugar-equivalent basis.

Crop quality indicators were also expected to weaken. Recoverable sugar, or ATR, was forecast at 145.75 kg/mt, down from 157.62 kg/mt a year earlier, reflecting the impact of weather and crop conditions on cane quality.

Total ethanol production from sugarcane and corn was forecast at 2.17 billion liters, down 2% year over year. Hydrous ethanol output was expected to fall 7.3% to 1.266 billion liters, while anhydrous ethanol production was projected to increase 6.5% to 907 million liters.

The combination of lower cane availability, reduced ATR levels and recurring weather disruptions continued to support a constructive outlook for sugar market participants, with the strength of the expected El Niño pattern remaining a key variable for the remainder of the 2026 harvest season.