Thailand flooding delays next rice crop as poultry sector sees less impact

Flooding across Thailand is disrupting rice logistics and delaying planting of the next crop, while also affecting broiler farms and slowing domestic poultry demand, although chicken meat supplies and exports remain largely stable, market participants told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, Oct 6.

The flooding poses a more immediate supply chain risk to rice, with high water levels on the Chao Phraya River disrupting barge movements and cargo loading and potentially delaying planting and development of the November crop. The impact on poultry has been more limited so far, with only two broiler farms affected and chicken meat supplies remaining adequate.

Rice prices could therefore face greater near-term support from supply and logistics concerns, while poultry prices remain broadly stable.

The flooding has affected more than 1.64 million rai (263,068 hectares) of cropland across 42 provinces as of Oct. 2, with rice accounting for about 1.32 million rai (210,887 hectares), according to Thailand's Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, as reported by several media houses. However, the area officially assessed as damaged so far is significantly smaller, indicating that the full impact on rice production remains unclear.

"We are still monitoring whether the flooding will have a wider impact. At this stage, it is delaying planting for the next crop, which was scheduled to start after the September harvest. Farmers in affected areas will have to wait until water levels return to normal before planting. Rain is also slowing cargo loading and barge movements between factories and ports," said Anurak Deesirisathien, sales head of Asia Golden Rice Co. Ltd.

"High water levels are creating difficulties for river transport. The impact on container shipments has been limited so far, as orders are already low due to high freight rates and a pause in demand from the Philippines," Anurak added.

Another Bangkok-based exporter said the impact of flooding on deliveries varied by location, with its own shipments to the Port of Ko Sichang unaffected so far. However, rice mills relying on the main Chao Phraya River faced difficulties as strong tides were restricting cargo movement. The exporter said the situation would need to be monitored through next week.

The immediate impact on rice is being felt more through logistics than confirmed crop losses.

High water levels are making it difficult for some mills to move cargo to ports, particularly along the Chao Phraya River, while weak demand in the Philippines and elevated freight costs are limiting container activity.

A third Bangkok-based exporter said vessel and port constraints compounded logistical pressure, while uncertainty over the November crop could support prices. "Loading is difficult now due to a lack of stevedores and a backlog of vessels not yet completed. And more new vessels are coming in. For availability, we have to see how much it will affect the November crop. Prices should be firmer in the coming weeks."

Platts assessed Thai 5% broken white rice at $460/metric ton FOB Oct. 6, up $4/mt on the day.

According to S&P Global Energy CERA, Thailand is expected to produce 19.9 million mt of rice in marketing year 2026-27 (January-December), down 3.9% from the previous marketing year. Meanwhile, the USDA is forecasting production at 20.3 million mt for MY 2026-27, representing a 2% year-over-year decline.

Muted poultry impacts

In the poultry sector, flooding has so far caused limited disruption to physical supply.

Kukrit Areepakorn, manager of the Thai Broiler Processing Exporters Association, said only two broiler farms had been affected, with flooding concentrated mainly in eastern Thailand. The total number of broilers affected remains unclear.

Although flood-affected provinces account for an estimated 73% of Thailand's national broiler inventory, reported losses remain negligible, said Jessie Khor, principal analyst for proteins at S&P Global CERA.

Broiler losses in Kamphaeng Phet totaled about 12,000 birds, or less than 0.01% of the national inventory, Khor added.

Chicken meat supplies are currently adequate, with limited impact on exports, Areepakorn said. Rain and flooding have slowed local market activity and consumption, while local prices remain broadly stable, with some chicken parts declining in price.

Japanese importers reported limited disruption to Thai chicken meat imports, as their supplying processing plants remained unaffected by the flooding.

While current losses are unlikely to materially reduce Thailand's broiler production capacity, prolonged flooding could increase operating costs and weaken export competitiveness as exporters face restricted access to China and renewed competition from Brazil, Khor said.

Thailand's chicken meat production is forecast to fall 0.7% year over year to 3.3 million mt in 2026, constrained by lower chick production, tighter broiler inventories and subdued capacity utilization, according to S&P Global CERA analysts in their latest Thailand Poultry Short-Term Outlook.

Looking ahead, rice market participants will be watching water levels, river transport and the timing of planting and development of the November crop. Prolonged disruption could tighten rice availability and support prices, although weak export demand and high freight costs remain constraints. In poultry, the key watchpoint is whether flooding spreads to additional broiler farms and begins to affect production or exports.