China's tariff cut plans skip soybeans, spurring hopes for higher buys of other US farm goods

China's exclusion of soybeans from its planned tariff-reduction framework has left exporters optimistic that Beijing will increase purchases of other US farm and food products in the coming months to fulfill a commitment made earlier this year.

China's Ministry of Commerce said Sept. 28 that Beijing would consider reducing tariffs on a range of US agricultural and animal-protein products, including beef, pork, corn and wheat, but excluded soybeans. The announcement followed a bilateral summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington, DC, over Sept. 23-25.

China committed to purchasing $17 billion annually in US farm commodities other than soybeans from 2026 through 2028, with 2026 purchases prorated, the White House said in a May 17 fact sheet.

China purchased more than $10 billion in US farm and food products from January through July 2026, including $4.9 billion of soybeans and $5.2 billion of other agricultural commodities, according to US Census Bureau trade data.

"Removal of the remaining 10% tariff that China has on US agricultural commodities could be key to boosting US competitiveness in the Chinese market," S&P Global Energy CERA analysts said in a Sept. 23 report.

Market participants remain skeptical that China can meet the $17 billion commitment, as non-soybean purchases exceeded that level only in 2021 and 2022, according to the bureau.

China purchased just $66 million of US wheat and $7 million of US corn from January through July. It has not purchased any US wheat so far in marketing year 2026-27 (June-May), or corn in MY 2026-27 (September-August), according to US Department of Agriculture data.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed US corn CIF New Orleans at $225.75/metric ton on Sept. 30, down 6.2% month over month. Platts assessed corn CFR North Asia at $291.75/mt on Sept. 30, down 1.1% month over month.

Pork sales firm; beef exports fall

US beef and pork exports have historically accounted for a significant share of China's purchases of US agricultural and food products, US traders said.

During the tariff dispute in early 2025, China reduced its purchases of US pork and suspended US beef imports after Beijing stopped renewing export licenses for US meat-processing facilities in March 2025. Licenses for US pork-processing plants were later reinstated, traders said.

China has committed to purchasing 135,900 mt of US pork in MY 2026, up 18.9% year over year, according to USDA data. China is the world's third-largest pork importer, while the US is the second-largest exporter.

Platts assessed US pork loin at $2,645.55/mt on Sept. 30, down 4% month over month, and North Asia pork belly, single-ribbed, at $3,900/mt on Sept. 30, up 19.4% year over year.

US beef processors waited until May 2026 for China to renew export licenses for more than 400 facilities, following the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. US beef sales to China totaled 7,800 mt in MY 2026, down 77.8% year over year, according to USDA data.

"Key will be any follow-through on the part of China to lift all suspensions of US beef facilities, a key along with the removal of retaliatory tariffs," CERA analysts said in a Sept. 25 report.

China is the world's largest beef importer, while the US is the fourth-largest supplier.

Platts assessed 90CL CIF US East Coast at $7,033/mt on Sept. 30, down 1.7% month over month, and 95CL CIF US East Coast at $7,694/mt on Sept. 30, down month over month.

Soybean sales improve; tariffs weigh

US soybean sales to China have improved significantly in MY 2026-27 (September-August). However, soybeans remain excluded from China's tariff-reduction framework.

China is the world's largest soybean importer, while the US is the second-largest exporter. China imposes a 13% duty on US soybeans, comprising a 3% most-favored-nation tariff and an additional 10% levy. Brazilian soybeans face only the 3% most-favored-nation tariff.

"The additional duty on soybeans has hurt demand from private buyers in China. The private importers in China are buying from Brazil," a New Orleans-based soybean trader said.

Although shipments to China have risen sharply, US traders said all recent purchases were made by state-owned agencies COFCO and Sinograin. China has committed to purchase 10.17 million mt of US soybeans in MY 2026-27, according to USDA data.

"We believe 3 million-4 million mt of the 6 million mt booked for unknown destinations will ultimately be switched to China, putting China commitments at 13 million-14 million mt," CERA analysts said in a Sept. 25 report.

US soybean exports fell 18.2% year over year in MY 2025-26 amid lower shipments to China. Chinese purchases declined 45% to 12.4 million mt in the marketing year, according to USDA data.

China's purchases of US soybeans remained weak in MY 2025-26 after Beijing halted imports for five months, from June through October 2025, amid the tariff dispute. China resumed purchases after Trump and Xi held their first bilateral meeting in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025.

Platts assessed the SOYBEX CFR China flat price at $588.27/mt on Sept. 30, up 0.4% month over month. Platts assessed SOYBEX FOB New Orleans at $519.19/mt on Sept. 30, up 0.2% month over month.