India positioned to meet 2027 SAF targets by coprocessing, 2030 goals need urgent finance: report

India possesses sufficient domestic refinery coprocessing capacity to fulfill its initial sustainable aviation fuel blending mandates starting in 2027, but scaling up to meet the country's 5% target by 2030 will require urgent investment in stand-alone commercial plants and feedstock collection infrastructure, according to a joint report released Sept. 28 by S&P Global Energy and the SAF Association.

​The report, titled "India's Strategy for SAF Leadership: From Policy to Implementation," outlines India's road map for international flights, which sets indicative blending targets of 1% in 2027, 2% in 2028, and 5% by 2030.

Under this trajectory, Indian SAF demand is projected to rise from about 46,000 metric tons in 2027 to roughly 250,000 mt by 2030.

​India's overall jet fuel consumption is expected to be among the fastest-growing globally, expanding nearly 45% from 192,000 barrels/day (b/d) in 2024 to 277,000 b/d by 2031, the report said.

Refining assets secure near-term compliance

​India's immediate compliance strategy relies heavily on refinery coprocessing via the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids pathway.

It hosts four ISCC-CORSIA certified coprocessing facilities with a combined annual capacity of 106,500 mt: Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd.'s Mumbai refinery with 61,000 mt capacity, Indian Oil Corp. Ltd's in Panipat refinery with 30,000 mt, ​Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd.'s Visakh refinery with 10,000 mt, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd.'s Katipalla refinery with 5,500 mt.

​This existing coprocessing volume is sufficient to cover the mandatory SAF demand for 2027 and 2028, the report said.

Meeting the 2030 demand of 250,000 mt, however, will depend on planned greenfield HEFA and Alcohol-to-Jet projects coming online between 2028 and 2030. Achieving the 1% target in 2027 is estimated to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 119,000 mt, expanding to 665,000 mt in emissions reductions by 2030.

​"The question before us is no longer whether India has an SAF opportunity, but how effectively we can convert that opportunity into a scalable, sustainable and globally competitive industry," Rohit Kumar, Secretary General of the SAF Association, said.

​Feedstock fundamentals and export bottlenecks

​India holds substantial domestic feedstock potential, supported by annual edible oil consumption of 29 million-30 million mt, which could yield between 1.8 million-2.6 million mt of used cooking oil annually, according to the report.

However, only a fraction of this volume is collected through formal, traceable supply chains.

​For the ATJ pathway, India's established sugarcane and molasses ethanol capacity, providing 1.5 billion liters to the domestic E20 gasoline blending program, presents a structural advantage, the report said.

Sugarcane-based ATJ can achieve up to a 73% greenhouse gases reduction compared to standard Jet-A1 under ICAO default values.

​However, the report highlights potential barriers to international export markets.

​EU feedstock restrictions under ReFuelEU Aviation rules, food and crop-based feedstocks (including sugarcane ethanol) are excluded. Moreover, Indian ATJ producers seeking to export to European markets will need to pivot toward second-generation (2G) cellulosic ethanol and agricultural residues. Meanwhile, domestic coprocessing assets are CORSIA-certified but require additional EU sustainability certifications for broader market entry.

​Phased technology road map

The report recommends a three-phase technological sequence for India.

A near-term phase for HEFA assets and refinery coprocessing for CORSIA compliance; a medium-term step to leverage existing ethanol infrastructure, and a long term one to deploy Fischer-Tropsch processing for municipal solid waste and agricultural residues, along with e-SAF linked to India's national mission.

​"SAF must be viewed not as a single technology or feedstock pathway, but as a portfolio of opportunities aligned with India's diverse resources," said Alok Sharma, Vice President of the SAF Association and former Director of R&D at IOCL. "Projects must move beyond announcements toward bankable investments and commercial production."

​Market context and green premiums

​Global SAF prices continue to hold a steep premium over conventional jet fuel, driven by compliance mandates, feedstock constraints, and geopolitical risks in key shipping corridors.

​At the end of first-half 2026, Platts assessed FOB Straits SAF outright values at $2,435/metric ton and FOB China SAF at $2,410/mt.

In feedstock markets, standard UCO FOB North China was assessed at $1,140/mt on April 2, 2026.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed SAF (HEFA-SPK) FOB Straits at $2,440/mt on Sept. 25, up $10 day over day.