European soybean meal prices surge despite ASF-driven demand concerns in Spain

Soybean meal prices in Spain and the Netherlands have risen sharply month over month in September, supported by higher futures, firmer origin premiums and a weaker euro, despite increasingly weak feed demand in Spain as African swine fever outbreaks weigh on livestock production and feed consumption. Corn prices, meanwhile, remained broadly stable as subdued demand offset support from futures markets.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed soybean meal ex-works Spain at €436/metric ton on Sept. 24, up €51/metric ton from Aug. 27. FOB Netherlands soybean meal was assessed at €425/mt, up €43/mt during the same period. Corn ex-works Spain increased by €3.50/mt over the period to €248.50/mt.

The soybean meal market gained momentum throughout September as traders and brokers pointed to rising futures and firmer origin premiums. On Aug. 27, Spanish and Dutch traders said both the markets were tracking higher futures and stronger premiums at origin. By early September, soybean meal prices in both Spain and the Netherlands had reached historic highs since the launch of the assessments on May 5, 2025, supported by a CBOT rally and concerns about rising replacement costs.

Spanish soybean meal prices jumped €24/mt day over day Sept. 23 after a sharp increase in replacement values. A Spanish trader said soybean meal futures strengthened while the euro weakened against the dollar, prompting sellers to raise offer levels throughout the session. The trader added that buyers also returned to secure nearby coverage amid concerns that prices could rise further.

The Netherlands' market followed a similar trend, with traders reporting that a gradual rise in futures and euro weakness continued to support prices. Earlier in the month, traders and brokers said heightened volatility had encouraged some buyers to increase coverage, adding that EU Deforestation Regulation-related supply concerns could further support soybean meal values later in the year.

According to market participants, concerns over the implementation of the EUDR have also become an increasingly important factor. The EUDR implementation could tighten EU soybean meal availability and increase costs through additional traceability and logistics requirements, according to a report published by the European Feed Manufacturers' Federation on Sept. 16. FEFAC said compliant soybean meal could command a 5%-10% premium, while estimating the broader cost impact on the EU feed sector and alternative protein markets at up to €2.25 billion.

A Spanish feed mill source said that feed demand has weakened considerably following a strong first quarter, with African swine fever outbreaks reducing pig numbers and limiting feed consumption. Sources indicated compound feed production could fall around 5% year over year in the fourth quarter, with declines exceeding 10% in some regions most affected by ASF.

While corn continued to receive support from higher futures, corn traders in Spain said weaker feed demand was linked to ASF concerns.

The European association of grain, rice, feed, oilseed, olive oil, oils and fats, and agrosupply traders (COCERAL) cut its 2026 EU-27+UK grain crop forecast to 279 million mt, down nearly 8 million mt from its July outlook and well below the 307.4 million mt harvested in 2025, citing adverse weather across key producing regions, in its revised report published on Sept. 22.

Wheat production was revised lower to 137.5 million mt as crops in Germany and Poland underperformed expectations, while corn saw the sharpest downgrade to 48.6 million mt amid extreme heat and drought during pollination. France's corn crop is now projected at just 7.6 million mt, its lowest level in more than two decades, with lower plantings and poor yields weighing on the EU outlook.