EU beef output expected to fall in 2026 as shrinking cattle herd tightens supply: USDA

EU beef production could decline in 2026 as a shrinking cattle herd reduces slaughter numbers, according to the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service released Sept. 16.

The USDA said the EU cattle sector faces pressure from high production costs, strict environmental and animal welfare regulations and livestock diseases.

EU cattle slaughter is forecast to fall to 21.03 million head in 2026 from 21.57 million head in 2025, reducing beef production to 6.335 million mt carcass weight equivalent this year from 6.39 million mt a year earlier, according to the USDA.

Reduced cattle availability has tightened domestic supplies across the bloc, underpinning beef prices even as higher slaughter weights partially offset lower animal numbers this year, the report said.

Drought and heat stress across parts of Europe are also expected to weigh on fodder supplies and livestock productivity, further constraining output, according to the report.

EU beef imports increased during the first half of 2026, largely driven by shipments from Brazil, the report said, adding that EU veterinary requirements could disrupt the flow of Brazilian exports to the bloc in the second half of the year. Overall, the USDA projected full-year EU beef imports at 480,000 mt, up from 462,000 mt in 2025.

Higher beef prices may weigh on consumption, although demand has remained relatively resilient in several member states, the report said.

The USDA forecast EU beef consumption at 6.255 million mt in 2026, broadly unchanged from a year earlier.

The USDA expects supply tightness to persist into 2027 as cattle availability remains constrained. It said EU cattle slaughter could decline to 20.95 million head in 2027, while beef production could decrease to 6.3 million mt carcass weight equivalent.

Imports are forecast to fall to 400,000 mt in 2027, while consumption could decline to 6.2 million mt as some consumers switch to cheaper protein sources, including pork and poultry, the USDA said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the EU beef marker at $6,850/mt on Sept. 17, up $400/mt day over day.