China's soybean buying revival boosts US export outlook; tariffs cloud prospects

China's aggressive purchases of US soybeans for the marketing year 2026-27 (September-August) have boosted expectations for a recovery in US export shipments after a weak previous season, according to soybean exporters based in the US. However, they remain concerned that additional Chinese tariffs could limit demand growth.

China has booked 8.98 million metric tons of US soybeans so far in MY 2026-27, helping lift total US soybean export commitments to 18.9 million mt, more than double the year-ago level, according to US Department of Agriculture data.

The buying spree comes ahead of a scheduled summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping over Sept. 24-25, a meeting that traders expect could influence agricultural trade between the world's two largest economies.

"We expect overall exports to rise this season as China is back in the market and buying aggressively," a New Orleans-based soybean exporter said. "Last year, weak Chinese demand weighed heavily on total US shipments."

China is the world's largest soybean importer, while the US is the second-largest exporter after Brazil.

China suspended purchases of US soybeans for nearly five months in June 2025 amid escalating trade tensions, turning instead to Brazilian supplies, according to US-based traders. USDA data showed China resumed buying US-origin soybeans in late October 2025.

The disruption contributed to an 18.2% year-over-year decline in US soybean exports in MY 2025-26. Shipments to China fell 45% year over year to 12.4 million mt during the marketing year, USDA data showed.

The USDA, in its Sept. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, forecast US soybean exports at 45.18 million mt in MY 2026-27, up 10.9% from the previous year. US soybean production is projected at 123.42 million mt, up 6.4% year over year.

Several exporters expect Chinese purchases to reach 25 million mt in MY 2026-27, consistent with commitments made during a US-China summit in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025, when China pledged to buy 25 million mt annually from 2026 through 2028.

"If China purchases close to 25 million mt, that would bring demand back to more normal levels for US soybeans," a trader at a US-based multinational agricultural trading company said.

Tariffs remain a key obstacle

Despite the improved sales pace, market participants said China's additional tariffs on US soybeans continue to discourage private-sector imports.

China imposes a total import duty of 13% on US soybeans, including an additional 10% levy on top of the 3% most-favored-nation tariff. In comparison, Brazilian soybeans face only the 3% MFN duty.

"So far, virtually all sales have been to state-owned buyers such as COFCO and Sinograin because private importers are reluctant to absorb the additional tariff costs," an Illinois-based soybean trader said.

China shifted much of its soybean sourcing to Brazil in early 2025 following the tariff dispute. Although purchases of US-origin soybeans have resumed, Brazil continues to dominate China's import program.

According to Chinese customs data, Brazil accounted for 72.1% of China's soybean imports through July 2026.

Traders said they expect tariff-related concerns to feature prominently in discussions during the upcoming US-China summit later in September.

Brazil export outlook in focus

Market participants said stronger Chinese demand for US soybeans in the coming months could reduce demand for Brazilian supplies, although the impact may be limited as Brazil enters its seasonal export slowdown.

Brazil's new soybean crop for MY 2026-27 (January-December) will begin reaching export channels from January.

Brazil exported 9.8 million mt of soybeans in August, down 26.8% month over month, according to Secretariat of Foreign Trade, or Secex, data released Sept. 4. China was the top destination for Brazilian soybeans in August, purchasing 7 million mt, 25.7% lower month over month, the data showed.

"There is potential for China to frontload US soybean purchases during the fourth quarter before switching more heavily to Brazilian supplies once the new crop becomes available in January," a trader with a Switzerland-based agricultural trading company said.

S&P Global Energy CERA forecast Brazil's MY 2026-27 soybean harvest at 177 million mt, down 2.7% year over year. Brazilian soybean exports are projected at 112 million mt, down 1.8% from the previous marketing year.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed SOYBEX FOB New Orleans at $526.81/mt on Sept. 15, up 27.5% year over year.

Platts assessed SOYBEX FOB Santos at $540.8/mt on Sept. 15, up 19.2% year over year.

Platts assessed SOYBEX CFR China at $590.29/mt on Sept. 15, up 20.1% year over year.