Myanmar 5% white rice falls to two-month low on new-crop arrivals, weak demand

Myanmar's 5% white rice price fell to its lowest level in two months Sept. 11, as early new-crop arrivals weighed on domestic prices while demand from the Philippines weakened, market participants told Platts.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Myanmar 5% broken white rice at $470/metric ton FOB FCL Sept. 11, down $9/mt week over week and the lowest since July 10, when the assessment was at the same level.

The assessment has fallen $35/mt, or 6.9%, from $505/mt FOB FCL Aug. 14, when the price reached its highest level in nearly two years amid tight end-of-season supply and steady Philippine demand.

The price correction has narrowed Myanmar rice's premium over competing Asian origins, potentially creating fresh export opportunities if prices become more competitive.

Myanmar 5% white rice currently stands at a discount of $14/mt to Thai 5% white rice and at premiums of $50/mt to Vietnamese 5% white rice, $51/mt to Pakistani 5% white rice and $91/mt to Indian 5% white rice, Platts data showed.

New-crop arrivals weigh on prices

Market participants attributed the decline partly to the start of Myanmar's new-crop harvest, which has increased the flow of paddy into the domestic market.

A Yangon-based exporter said the arrival of the new harvest and weaker demand in the Philippines had contributed to the decline, adding that prices could fall further as additional supply reaches the market.

Another Yangon-based exporter said larger new-crop volumes could become available toward the end of September. However, FOB prices would continue to be influenced by domestic demand and movements in local rice prices, the exporter added.

Myanmar has two rice harvest seasons: the monsoon season, which runs from September to December, and the summer season, during which harvesting occurs from late February to June.

"The continued decline in domestic prices has weighed on Myanmar's FOB market," a Yangon-based trader said. "Competitive new-crop offers against other origins could add further downward pressure."

However, some market participants said the early stage of the harvest could limit the immediate flow of new-crop supply.

"The new-crop harvest has started in some areas of the Bago and Yangon regions; however, moisture levels remain high," a Yangon-based exporter said.

The exporter said new-crop arrivals could remain limited until moisture levels stabilize.

Philippine demand loses momentum

The Philippines supported Myanmar's 5% white rice market during July and the first half of August, but buying interest for the grade has since weakened, according to market participants.

Myanmar exported 106,512 mt of rice to the Philippines in August, down 15.7% from 126,416 mt in July, according to Myanmar Rice Federation data. The Philippines nevertheless remained Myanmar's largest rice buyer, accounting for 71.7% of the country's total rice exports during the month.

With Vietnamese Fragrant 5% rice prices also falling and the Philippines' domestic harvest approaching, Filipino buyers are adopting a wait-and-watch approach before committing to fresh purchases, market participants said.

The first exporter said Philippine buying interest in Myanmar 5% white rice was unlikely to return unless the grade became more competitive against Vietnamese rice.

"Philippine demand is unlikely to return at current levels," the exporter said. "Myanmar rice would need to fall below Vietnamese prices, or at least reach a similar level."

Myanmar's rice exports for the marketing year 2026-27 are projected at 2.1 million mt, down 8.7% year over year, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture.