Brazil resumes China beef offers for 2027 quota; wide price gap limits deals

Brazilian exporters have resumed beef export offers to China, with some Chinese importers negotiating January 2027-arrival cargoes after trading activity slowed due to the imminent exhaustion of China's tariff-free import quota for Brazilian beef, according to market participants.

China has imposed annual beef import quotas for several countries, including Brazil, and introduced an additional 55% tariff on imports exceeding those quotas from 2026 through 2028. For 2026, China set Brazil's beef import quota at 1.1 million mt. The quota will rise to 1.13 million mt in 2027 and 1.15 million mt in 2028.

Market sources said buyers and sellers are testing prices and evaluating the feasibility of new trades under the quota allocated for 2027.

Brazilian exporters who resumed their offers to China in September are already planning shipments scheduled to arrive in January 2027, utilizing next year's quota, according to a Brazil-based research analyst.

The analyst said exporters also intend to extend shipment transit times to China from the standard 45-60 days to as long as 90 days to comply with quota requirements.

Customs clearance in China can take longer than expected, and most shipments to China typically involve a two-month transit period, according to the analyst.

Larger Brazilian exporters may be able to offer full front forequarters eight-cut cargoes to China at prices as low as $7,000/mt CFR, while smaller exporters may need to set higher prices -- potentially up to $8,000/mt CFR -- to maintain their margins.

A Brazilian exporter said initial offers for new trades of FFQ 8 cuts to China are expected to range from $7,000/mt to $7,800/mt CFR. Offers for other beef cuts have already been reported in the market, although bids from Chinese importers remain below tradable levels, according to the exporter.

"We will wait for now," the exporter said, adding that there was no urgency to conclude deals with China at this stage.

Some importers were reported to be negotiating with large-scale Brazilian plants, hoping to finalize deals at or below $6,000/mt CFR China, according to a China-based importer.

However, a second China-based importer expressed skepticism about the feasibility of such pricing, noting that Brazilian lean trimmings for the US market could already command about $6,600/mt.

The importer said that if FFQ 8 cuts were priced below trimming values, Brazilian exporters would have little incentive to sell to China, preferring instead to maximize returns through the US market.

Another Brazilian exporter said bids for October loadings remained well below offer levels, with current prices in the Chinese spot market constraining importers' ability to increase their bids.

Spot prices

Spot market prices for FFQ 8 cuts in China's domestic spot market have risen over the past couple of weeks despite thin trade volumes, driven by Brazil's imminent exhaustion of its 2026 quota.

Offer prices for imported Brazilian FFQ 8 cuts rose by 0.80 yuan/kg week over week, reaching about 58.3 yuan/kg ($6,960/mt) to 59.3 yuan/kg as of Sept. 7, according to a local sales representative.

The longer transit time for Brazilian beef arriving in China in January, which results in higher logistics costs, combined with uncertainty over Brazilian fed cattle prices in the coming months, has prompted exporters to maintain higher offer prices -- levels that Chinese buyers consider too high, according to the second Brazilian exporter.

"I do not see regular shipments to China at this moment," the second Brazilian exporter said, adding that uncertainty among both importers and exporters continued to constrain negotiations.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the Brazil beef marker at $5,920/mt FCA Santos on Sept. 4, up 2.6% day over day.

Platts assessed FFQ 8 cuts at $6,000/mt CFR China on Sept. 4, up 0.8% week over week.