EUDR, rising South American prices could favor US soybean meal in the EU

The upcoming application of the European Union Deforestation Regulation could increase the popularity of US soybean meal in the EU, sources told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, days after higher Argentine and Brazilian prices boosted interest in US-origin product.

Platts assessed the price for Argentine soybean meal FOB Up River for October loading at $404.10/mt on Sept. 3, and FOB Paranaguá at $414.02/mt, up 4.6% and 3.6%, respectively, from a week ago.

While the market has been volatile of late, US soybean meal has become more price competitive for Europe and the policy change may continue the trend.

The EUDR, due to enter into force Dec. 30, 2026, will require importers to demonstrate that soy products placed on the EU market are not linked to deforestation and meet strict traceability requirements. Participants say US-origin soybean meal could benefit, as compliance may be easier to demonstrate than for some competing origins.

"Generally, there's more interest [from the EU in US soybean meal]," a US trader said. "The EU will need US meal as it can easily comply with EUDR regulation coming online."

A second US-based trader said there are many information gaps regarding that topic.

"It's hard because we are not sure yet how US soybean meal will fit in with it all [in the regulation]," he said.

The competitiveness of US soybean meal was boosted in the past few weeks, as export prices in Argentina and Brazil increased to multiyear highs above the $400/st threshold, supported by strength in Chicago Board of Trade futures, slower-than-usual farmer sales, and deteriorating crushing margins.

"Soybean availability remains generally limited, and crushers will now need to cover their crushing requirements despite currently facing less-than-ideal margins," a Brazilian trader said.

While South America saw higher values, the US Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales for 100,000 metric tons of US soybean meal and soybean cake for delivery to the Netherlands during the 2026-27 marketing year, and 100,000 mt to Germany, which sources said was unusual.

"It's definitely not normal interest [in US soybean meal]," the second US-based trader said. "Usually, that trades out of Argentina."

Sources in the Netherlands believe that acceptance of US soybean meal is rising in the EU, helped by firmer South American prices in the last few weeks, which made the US the most affordable option, according to several traders.

In the coming months, "prices on export products in South America will be set by the demand and the futures," Brazilian crops principal analyst at S&P Global Energy CERA Silvia Navarro said. "Margins and logistics should pressure the basis or not."

The competitiveness of US soybean meal could also be supported by strong US crush margins and favorable freight economics, Markus Stege, USSEC Representative for Northern Europe, told Platts.

"What started as a price window is now looking more structural," he said. "Buyers in the Netherlands, Spain, and Germany are testing US supply chains, and feedback on logistics and quality has been positive."

Markus added that European demand for protein feed continues to outpace local supply, with some traditional providers facing increased competition from Brazil and Argentina.

"[The past few days were] a price opportunity," he said. "But it could realistically become a lasting second sourcing option for Europe."

US crush margins are close to $3.50/bushel for crushers with integrated biodiesel plants, while margins for non-integrated crushers are at about $2.50/bu, US traders said.

Data from the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission shows that EU imports of US soybean meal rose significantly year over year in June, rising to 138,322 mt, from 7,666 mt in June 2025.

The Netherlands has reported sharp increases in US soybean meal imports during recent marketing years, climbing from 17,876 mt in 2023-24, to 56,687 mt in 2024-25, to 241,551 mt in 2025-26.

As a whole, the EU increased its annual imports of US soybean meal between 2024-25 and 2025-26, with 251,483 mt imported in the first marketing year, and 547,487 mt in the latter, according to the EU data.

The amount from the US was still relatively small compared to Latin American producers. For the 2025-26 crop year, S&P Global Energy CERA projects Argentina will export 29.50 million mt of soybean meal, virtually steady year over year, while Brazilian shipments are pegged at 27 million mt, up 4.2%.

S&P Global Energy CERA projects that the European Union will import 7.7 million mt of soybean meal in Q4 2026.

On Sept. 4, FOB Netherlands soybean meal was assessed at Eur400/mt and the EXW Spain soybean meal at Eur403/mt, each increasing by Eur18/mt week over week.