Agriculture, Meat
September 04, 2026
Drought hits 60% of US cattle area; 2026 beef output seen down 4% YOY
By Sampad Nandy
Editor:
HIGHLIGHTS
Drought impacts 61% of cattle area in Texas
US beef production seen at 25.035 bil lb in MY 2026
US hikes lean beef import quota by 300,000 mt for MY 2026
The continued worsening of drought conditions in the US cattle inventory area is likely to weigh on domestic beef output amid tight local supply, according to US-based market participants.
Drought conditions affecting the US cattle inventory area worsened in the week ended Sept. 1, with 60% of the area impacted compared with 58% in the previous week, according to the US Drought Monitor report released Sept. 3.
In the same period last year, about 18% of the area was affected by drought, the report said.
"The situation worsened over the past week as conditions in Texas remain critical," a beef trader based in the state said.
In Texas, which accounts for 15% of US cattle production, about 61% of the state's cattle area faced intense drought conditions, the report said.
About 36% of the cattle area in Texas experienced extreme drought, 8% faced exceptional drought and 17% was affected by severe drought, the report added.
In Nebraska, which accounts for 9% of national cattle production, 9% of the area faced extreme drought and 16% experienced severe drought, according to the report.
"The situation has improved slightly in Nebraska, while more cattle area is under drought conditions in Texas," another Texas-based beef trader said.
In Kansas, which accounts for 9% of US cattle production, 50% of the cattle area experienced severe drought, the report said.
US beef production is estimated at 25.035 billion pounds in marketing year 2026 (January-December), down 4% year over year, according to the US Department of Agriculture's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Aug. 12. For MY 2027, US beef output is projected at 25.048 billion lb, largely stable year over year, the WASDE report said.
Amid the expected decline in domestic output, the US increased the lean beef trimmings import quota for MY 2026 to allow 300,000 metric tons of in-quota imports over a 90-day period, starting Sept. 1, the White House said in a fact sheet Aug. 26.
Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed 90CL beef CIF EC US at $7,121/mt and 95CL beef EC US at $7,782/mt on Sept. 3, both unchanged day over day.
