ASIA WHEAT ROUNDUP: Australian prices hit 3-year high in August amid disruption in Black Sea grains exports

Australian wheat prices reached a 3-year high in August as the disruption to Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports in the Black Sea region that started in July extended through August.

Destination buyers and traders executing contracts increasingly turned toward Australian origin as a replacement for the Black Sea wheat, thus driving up Platts assessment to a record 3-year high of $312/metric ton FOB Kwinana for Australian Premium White and $302/mt FOB for Australian Standard White wheat with no-protein guarantee Aug. 31. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.

The Platts APW wheat assessment was up $23/mt month over month, while ASW1 assessment was up $20/mt over the same period.

Australian prices at 3-year high

Liquidity in Australian wheat was high in the first half of August as traders sought to execute destination contracts amid the disruption in Black Sea wheat exports, although destination demand was focused on the containers market instead of the bulk segment.

"September and October [shipment] capacity is well sold [for Australian wheat exports], November is slightly different, we should have new crop supply by then," said an Australian trader.

"We need to see some action from buyers further into the new crop. So far, it has been quiet, however, canola and barley are likely to take up a lot of the early stem in Western Australia at least," said an Australian grains exporter.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences raised its wheat production estimates for marketing year 2026-27 (October-September) to 29.9 million metric tons in its Australian Crop Report released Sept. 1, up from 26.7 million mt estimated in June.

Buyers consider other origins

Some destination buyers began to seek other origins amid the increasing prices at key origins. The Philippines purchased a September shipment of US Soft White Winter Wheat via a tender Aug. 19 at $295/mt CFR Batangas and Bataan instead of an expected ASW1 cargo.

A Vietnamese buyer also stated that they had purchased several cargoes of US SWW before prices increased after the Philippines tender Aug. 19. US SWW indicative offers were at $277.96/mt FOB Pacific Northwest for October shipment, Platts data showed.

Sources were also eyeing Indian wheat, which although priced at uncompetitive levels of $325/mt FOB, according to an Indian trader, could become a key supplier in the global market if the Black Sea disruption continued to push prices higher.

A deal for ex-Khandla wheat was already done in August with a destination set for Sri Lanka, making this "the first shipment in many years," the same trader said.

What's next in Asian wheat markets?

Many Southeast Asian buyers were still short on wheat supply, with an analyst's estimates for Indonesia at 80% or more for October and November shipments.

"I think some are still looking for this period. Maybe to cover their short gap while monitoring the Black Sea situation," said an Indonesian miller source.

Buyers are expected to hold onto the procurement strategy of purchasing containers.

"If the Black Sea grain corridor is opened, futures will correct fast, so it is a struggle for the buyers to decide whether they can buy a full bulk vessel at this moment. Anyone who buys first, if the market drops, they will be hurt the most," said a Singapore-based grains analyst.

In Vietnam, a flour miller said, "High protein wheat [prices] are going up faster than low protein. Protein is another concern for new crop wheat."

Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.