China DAP, MAP exports remain uncertain as September begins

Uncertainty surrounds China's exports of ammoniated phosphate fertilizers, with producers yet to receive official guidance on whether outflows will resume in September, according to China-based market participants.

In December 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the suspension of phosphate fertilizer exports until August 2026.

A China-based trader said there was no indication of when further clarity might emerge and that diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate exports might not resume this year.

The trader said the government's sulfur discounts to domestic phosphate producers were intended to support domestic supply rather than boost exports.

Sulfur prices have risen as the conflict in the Middle East disrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Another China-based trader said the approaching winter stockpiling season also dimmed prospects for near-term resumption of exports. Preparations for winter stockpiling are expected to begin in October, leaving limited time for export activity before domestic demand takes priority.

A return of sulfur prices to preconflict levels would likely be required for Chinese phosphate exports to resume, according to the second trader.

Platts assessed the ex-works Zhenjiang granular sulfur price at 7,500 yuan/metric ton ($1,115.76/mt) on Aug. 27, down 1,250 yuan/mt week over week.

A China-based sulfur trader said the resumption of exports could support sulfur demand, as phosphate producers would increase operating rates.

A fourth China-based trader said that, with autumn application demand approaching and winter storage expected to begin in November, phosphate producers are expected to prioritize domestic supply, reducing the likelihood of a meaningful resumption of exports in 2026.

Export eligibility

Only triple superphosphate and single superphosphate cargoes are currently understood to be eligible for China Inspection and Quarantine inspections and export, according to a fifth China-based trader.

Offers for Chinese SSP 20% were reported around $230/mt FOB, while Brazilian buyers were seeking lower levels, with bids heard around $230-$240/mt CFR, the fifth trader said.

The trader said DAP and MAP export restrictions may remain in place until the end of the year, as preparations for winter storage begin in October.

China's phosphate export window typically spans March to October, when domestic fertilizer demand is seasonally lower. However, producers have been prioritizing domestic supply amid expectations of higher crop prices next year, the fifth trader said.

The absence of Chinese DAP and MAP exports has prompted some Thai buyers to seek alternative sources, according to a Thailand-based importer.

Thailand relies on Chinese phosphate fertilizer supplies, but local inventories are dwindling, the importer said. However, with the peak application season ending in September, demand for the larger 50,000-mt cargoes typically supplied by producers in the US, Saudi Arabia and Morocco has weakened.

Thai importers have been seeking smaller cargoes of about 6,000 mt, according to the importer.

Platts assessed DAP CFR Thailand at $945/mt on Aug. 27, up $15/mt from the previous week.