Australian wheat export prices reach 3-year high on Black Sea supply disruption

Australian wheat export prices have climbed to their highest levels in three years, as logistical disruptions in the Black Sea shipping lanes affected Russian and Ukrainian grain exports during their peak shipment window to Asian buyers, according to Platts assessments and trade sources.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Australian Standard White with no protein guarantee, or ASW1, at $291/metric ton FOB Kwinana on Aug. 24, up $25/mt since the intensification of drone attacks on Black Sea shipping and ports on July 6. That is the highest level for the grade since July 25, 2023, Platts data showed.

Australian Premium White, or APW, has risen by a similar magnitude over the same period, gaining $26/mt to reach $298/mt FOB Kwinana on Aug. 24 — the highest assessment for the grade since June 12, 2024, according to Platts.

Multiple Asian trade sources said the rally reflects a lack of Black Sea wheat supply caused by the logistics disruptions, alongside a switch by Southeast Asian buyers toward near-term Australian containerized cargoes for September and October shipment.

"Australian prices keep getting firmer, freight [from the Black Sea to Southeast Asia] has also gone above $80/mt," said a Vietnamese mill source.

A Singapore-based grains trader said Russian wheat could still reach Asian markets via alternative routes, but the economics no longer work. "There is zero sense Baltic's price to Southeast Asia," the trader said.

Despite the price strength, Australian farmer selling has remained sluggish, according to trade sources.

"Aussie farmer selling is limited, farmers are waiting for the rains in the three weeks before the harvest in September, while a stronger Australian Dollar is keeping export prices supported," said an Australian exporter.

A Melbourne-based exporter source said near-term export capacity has already been largely committed, with fresh new-crop supply not expected to ease the market until later in the fourth quarter. "September and October capacity is well sold, but November should have some new crop supply by then," the exporter said.