Mexico poultry import policy shifts US, Brazil chicken trade

Mexico's poultry import market is facing renewed policy uncertainty after domestic producers called for tighter controls on Brazilian chicken imports, raising questions over trade flows at a time when US exporters are already seeing softer shipments to their largest foreign market.

Brazilian shipments of boneless skinless chicken breast have increased 118% since Mexico opened the Package Against Inflation and High Costs, or PACIC, according to the National Customs Agency of Mexico data.

"The organization is calling for an immediate end to the tariff exemption that has allowed Brazilian boneless chicken breast imports since 2022. Instead, it proposes implementing an import quota system that would supplement domestic supply when necessary without undermining national production," Mexico's National Poultry Farmers Union, or UNA, said in a statement Aug. 17. UNA did not immediately respond for comment.

Brazilian exporters said Mexico has become increasingly important as a destination for chicken meat, particularly boneless chicken breast, because buyers there typically pay premiums over other markets in the Americas and often over European buyers.

"Mexico is a strategic market," a Brazilian exporter said, adding that the country plays a key role in Brazil's export diversification strategy.

According to data from Brazil's Foreign Trade Agency, Secex, Brazilian chicken exports to Mexico rose for a fifth consecutive year in 2025, increasing 15.2% year over year. Mexico's share of Brazil's total chicken exports climbed to 4.6% in 2025 from 2.3% in 2021. In the first quarter of 2026, Brazilian shipments to Mexico rose 40% from the same period a year earlier.

Current indications for Brazilian boneless chicken breast exports to Mexico were heard around $2,550/mt, according to a Brazilian industry participant.

A Brazil-based trader said market participants were increasingly concerned by rumors that the program may not be renewed for Brazilian chicken meat in 2027. The same source said the uncertainty has strengthened Brazilian exporters' negotiating position because Mexican importers have accelerated purchases ahead of possible changes to market access.

"As every year, uncertainty only ends on Dec. 31," the trader said, noting that rules for the following year are typically announced on that date.

A third Brazilian exporter said they remained optimistic. "I am hopeful that the PACIC will be renewed," the exporter said. "But not all market participants share that view."

The policy uncertainty comes as US chicken producers face pressure from strong domestic output and weaker export performance to Mexico. Platts assessed jumbo boneless skinless breasts EXW US Southeast at $1.17/lb or $2579/mt, with elevated US production levels weighing on fresh breast prices.

Seasonal trends point to further increases in US output, while any loss of export demand could add pressure to domestic price levels.

Mexico remained the largest single-country destination for US broiler exports in June, accounting for 25.3% of total monthly US export volume, according to monthly US Department of Agriculture export data. Year-to-date US broiler exports to Mexico were down 2.7% from the prior year and 0.5% below the five-year year-to-date average, USDA data showed.

Through June, the US exported 3.2 billion lb of broiler meat, of which 756.6 million lb, or 23.4%, went to Mexico, according to USDA data.

Although US boneless skinless breast prices remain competitive, some exporters said Brazilian product continues to hold advantages with Mexican buyers.

"What catches my eye is the US BSB, which is at a good price versus Brazil stuff," one exporter said. "Despite the price, Mexico's customers would still rather buy the Brazil product. Reasons: good quality, better yield, uniform size and well-packed."

Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.