Brazilian, US soybean prices remain high despite drops; Brazil still top origin

Despite the steep falls in global soybean prices recently propelled by decreases in Chicago Board of Trade futures, Brazil and US outright prices remain high, sources say, making Chinese buyers more cautious but preferring Brazilian soybeans.

From July 14 to July 24, the futures market saw the August (Q) soybeans contract increase 55.25 cents, going from 1,192.75 cents/bushel to 1,248 cents/bu, while the September (U) contract rose 59 cents, going from 1,181.25 cents/bu to 1,240.25 cents/bu.

US sources linked the climbs to dry weather concerns in the US, the war in the Middle East supporting the energy markets, recent Chinese purchases of US soybeans, and strength in soybean meal.

According to S&P Global Energy CERA, up until July 31, the US Department of Agriculture had confirmed the sale of 3.045 million metric tons of US soybeans this year, with sales picking up pace during the week that started on July 14.

The trading activity sparked optimism in the US market, supporting futures, bases, and global prices, pushing SOYBEX FOB New Orleans and FOB Santos above the $500/mt threshold during the week ended July 24.

Nevertheless, Chinese purchases of US soybeans were heard to slow down during the week that ended on July 31, with the USDA confirming only 264,000 metric tons for delivery to China.

According to a trader in the CIF New Orleans market, the "weather premium was also taken off soybean futures," as forecasts for the US Corn Belt started showing rain on July 26, at a critical time in US harvest.

Chicago Board of Trade September (U) futures fell 29 cents July 27-31, while November (X) futures decreased 26.25 cents.

"The big drop this week was related to weather, energy, and the market being overpriced," Aaron Gerdts, principal crop analyst at CERA, said. "Weather forecasts look more favorable than last week, and I think the market realized yields will not be as bad as some had thought."

However, to US sources, prices remain high, with SOYBEX FOB New Orleans for September shipment sitting at $481.53/mt on July 31, and the outright price for CIF NOLA for August shipment at $476.75/mt.

Competing

In Brazil, FOB prices reached their highest levels in 2.5 years in the week ended July 27, due to a combination of firm export demand, expanding domestic crush, uneven farmer selling, and CBOT futures influence.

Despite Chinese buyers taking a more cautious approach amid high values and deteriorating crush margins, Brazil is expected to compete with the US for shipments in Q4, market participants say.

"Brazil's old crop availability remains high, as around one-third of the 2025-26 crop is still unsold, which equates to about 60 million mt," a trader in the country said.

"It's hard to predict if prices will remain high," a second Brazilian trader said. "As August is the critical month for soybean development in the US. We are in the weather market phase right now."

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the SOYBEX FOB Santos price for September delivery at $484.58/mt on July 31, down 3.9% week over week.

However, according to sources in the Chinese market, Brazil remains the preferred origin.

"Brazil's old-crop premiums have been difficult to push much lower because they still offer good value relative to US soybeans," a Chinese soybean trader said.

The same trader said that while new-crop premiums are weaker than old-crop levels, the decline has been relatively limited compared with the recent rally in futures, as basis levels were already relatively low.

Platts assessed CFR China soybean month-one September shipment at $531.31/mt on July 31, while the basis was at 255 cents/bu over November (X) futures.