Black Sea tensions lift Turkish corn prices ahead of harvest

Turkey's domestic corn prices have risen as escalating Black Sea tensions disrupt the flow of Ukrainian supplies, tightening availability ahead of the local harvest, traders said.

Turkey has been the main destination for Ukrainian corn in the 2025-26 marketing year. According to Ukraine port line-up data shared by traders, Turkey imported around 5.3 million metric tons of Ukrainian corn from July 2025 to June 2026, accounting for about 30% of Ukraine's total corn exports.

Uncertainty over logistics and freight has reduced the availability of imported corn, market participants said. With the local harvest still weeks away, domestic sellers have raised offers.

"Sellers know that corn won't come for a while, and there is still time until our corn harvest," a corn buyer at a Turkish feed mill said. The buyer put domestic corn prices at around $295/mt on an EXW basis.

Other importers said prices had reached around $300/mt on an FOT basis. A corn importer in Ankara said offers for export corn stored at warehouses in Samsun, Bandırma, İzmir and Karasu had climbed to around $300/mt.

Ukrainian sellers, meanwhile, lowered their offers as freight costs increased and demand weakened following the escalation in Black Sea tensions, traders said.

"Because of the tension in the Black Sea, CIF prices were in the $250s, but when CIF sellers couldn't find enough demand, they decreased prices and sold in the high $230s," a Turkish importer said. "Now the local sellers who purchased at high prices have increased local prices."

Market participants expect domestic prices to rise further as Turkey's reduced-tariff import quota expires July 31. However, the quota has not been fully used. Traders said about 310,000 mt remained available from the 3-million-mt quota as of July 29.

Despite rising local prices, corn demand from the feed sector remained subdued because most feed producers were already covered, market participants said.

"Demand is slow in terms of feed production," a Turkish broker said. The broker added that local prices may be rising because "the market thinks this port conflict will drag on."

The Turkish importer said local offers had increased, but demand remained weak. "The quota is not fulfilled yet," the importer said, adding that higher prices were not significantly affecting end-users because "they have enough stocks to carry them to the new crop at the end of August."

The feed mill buyer also said feed producers had not yet been strongly affected by higher corn prices. "Feed producers are not affected because of corn until now, in my opinion," the buyer said. "The most affected raw material is wheat bran. Corn has been affected as well, but not like other filling raw materials. We have enough corn in warehouses, and our luck is that it is the local harvest period for wheat and barley."

Turkey's new-crop corn harvest is expected to start by September, with local supplies reaching the market the same month. Import duties on corn are set to return to 130% after July 31 to protect the domestic harvest, said the corn importer.

Market participants remain uncertain whether domestic corn prices will ease after the harvest, as they continue to monitor Black Sea tensions.

"We are in global circumstances where even farmers are aware of what is going on," the broker said. "Let's wait and see."

Platts assessed Ukraine corn FOB POC at $227/mt on July 29 for shipment during Aug. 25-Sept. 8, down $3/mt week over week.