Ukrainian grain may shift to EU ports as attacks threaten Black Sea exports

Ukrainian grain exports are expected to be increasingly rerouted through the Danube and the western side of the country's border as escalating attacks on vessels and port infrastructures at the deep sea ports disrupt shipments from Ukraine, traders said.

The attacks have severely affected grain loading and export operations at Ukrainian ports, raising concerns that seaborne flows could halt if security conditions worsen.

"If the situation does not change in the next few weeks, exports from Ukraine will stop altogether," a Kyiv-based trader said.

Traders said Ukrainian grain could again move through Romania's Constanta port via the Danube, reviving a route used heavily at the start of the war in 2022.

"There might be flows through Constanta, but it depends on whether Ukrainian farmers are willing to pay for such logistics, as it would mean significantly lower prices for them," a Ukrainian corn seller said.

Another wheat seller said traders are increasingly looking to these export routes to ship the newly harvested wheat crop, though the flow remains minimal and unclear. A coaster trade was heard at $260/metric ton to Egypt over the weekend, while sellers offered at $262/mt, compared with bids at $255/mt.

Old-crop corn, which is almost sold out, has yet to be exported from Ukrainian ports. "We are finished with old-crop corn, but we cannot export it now because we do not have freight available ex-Ukraine," the Kyiv-based trader said.

However, hot, dry weather across Europe is also restricting movement along the Danube. "Potentially, yes, there could be flows through Constanta, but the water draft on the Danube is extremely low," the trader said. "Barges are stuck, and there is no navigation."

Romanian traders said renewed Ukrainian flows through Constanta would pose a bigger challenge for local farmers and producers than for traders, as domestic suppliers would have to compete with lower-priced Ukrainian grain.

"Anything can happen. There is no clarity yet about the flow," a Romanian corn trader said. "Ukraine will price itself into the market. It could be a threat to local farmers, who would need to compete with supply coming from Ukraine, but not necessarily to traders."

Buyers in Western Europe are also watching for changes in trade routes. A Spanish broker said the current geopolitical situation would make it harder for vessels sailing directly from Ukraine to reach Spain as they had previously done. However, rerouting remains likely through inland transport links or Danube ports.

Europe remains a key destination for Black Sea grains, and traders and buyers expect Ukrainian supplies to continue to reach European markets despite the disruption.

According to Qualimac, an association focused on quality and food safety for agri-food materials, two vessels carrying wheat and corn from Bulgaria and Romania, respectively, arrived in Barcelona on July 20.

An Italian trader said vessels carrying grain and sunflower oil are still arriving, mainly from Ukraine, and that Italy remains a key hub for Ukrainian agricultural flows.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Ukraine corn, FOB POC at $232/mt up $4/mt day over day and wheat 11.5%, FOB POC at $228.5/mt on July 21 for shipment from Aug. 18 to Sept. 1.