INTERVIEW: Philippines’ agriculture secretary sees actual rice import need at 3.6-3.8 mil mt in 2026

The Philippines' actual rice import requirement in calendar year 2026 remains about 3.6 million-3.8 million mt, while imports could increase to around 5-5.2 million mt only if additional strategic buffer stocks are required, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, in an interview on July 22.

The Philippines has already imported about 3.3 million mt of rice in 2026, and another 1 million mt has been contracted and is expected to arrive in the coming months, Laurel said, adding that much of the country's expected import requirement has already been secured. Any purchases beyond the country's actual import requirement will depend on international prices and the outcome of the country's main harvest, which begins in September.

"Our actual requirement is only about 3.6 million to 3.8 million metric tons," Laurel said. "Anything beyond that would simply be strategic buffer stocks. Whether we import more than that will depend on prices."

Laurel said the higher import figure should not be interpreted as a firm buying target.

"The Philippine market remains open, but purchases will be highly price-sensitive," he said.

Platts assessed Myanmar 5% broken white rice at $483 per metric ton FOB FCL July 22, the highest among the major Asian origins. In Thailand, the price was assessed at $452/mt FOB, Vietnam at $433/mt FOB, Pakistan at $409/mt FOB, while India remained the most competitively priced at $358/mt FOB.

The Philippines remains the world's largest rice importer, making its procurement decisions a key driver of Asian rice prices.

According to S&P Global Energy CERA, the Philippines is expected to import 5.6 million mt of rice in marketing year 2026-27 (July–June), up nearly 49% from 3.75 million mt in the previous marketing year. This forecast is in line with the USDA's projection of 5.6 million mt for the same period.

Harvest to determine further buying

Laurel said the country's procurement strategy has shifted away from the buying behavior observed during the 2023-24 period, when concerns about tightening supplies and export restrictions prompted aggressive purchases.

"Our main harvest begins around mid-September, and that should provide enough supply until next year," Laurel said. "Everything now depends on the harvest and whether we actually need to buy additional rice."

Rice prices seen easing

Despite concerns over another potential El Niño event, Laurel said he expects Asian rice prices to soften over the next six months as fresh harvests begin across major exporting countries.

"My assessment is that prices are more likely to ease," Laurel said. "India still has large stocks. Myanmar, Cambodia, Pakistan and the Philippines all have harvests coming. If countries continue purchasing steadily instead of rushing into the market, prices should soften."

He said the market is in a much stronger position than it was in 2023-24, when India's export restrictions and widespread buying pushed international rice prices sharply higher.

"I think everyone panicked during 2023-24," he said. "This year is different. Countries are much better prepared."

Laurel noted that Indonesia has already accumulated sufficient stocks, Cambodia expects a good harvest, and the Philippines has already front-loaded much of its import requirements.

5% broken rice policy to remain until 2028

Laurel said the Philippines will continue its policy of not issuing new Sanitary and Phytosanitary Import Clearances for 5% broken rice, although shipments covered by previously approved SPS import clearances will continue to enter the country.

"It's not a ban," Laurel said. "It's a policy direction."

The measure was introduced ahead of the domestic harvest to allow exporters time to adjust to the Philippines' evolving import requirements and to encourage the domestic rice sector to improve its competitiveness.

Laurel said the policy is expected to remain in place until around 2028 as the government upgrades the country's milling sector and seed development program.

"We're giving the industry until around 2028 to upgrade their machinery and become more competitive," he said.

He said that the Department of Agriculture plans to distribute seed varieties that combine high yields with improved eating quality, grain appearance and aroma so locally produced rice can better compete with imported supplies.

"We can no longer focus only on yield," Laurel said. "Consumers compare local rice with imported rice, so we also have to improve the eating quality."

Diversifying import origins

Laurel said the Philippines intends to gradually diversify its rice import sources to reduce its reliance on Vietnam, which currently supplies most of the country's imported rice.

"Vietnam has been a very reliable supplier," he said. "But depending on one source for around 80% of imports carries risks."

Laurel said discussions are ongoing with India's National Cooperative Export Ltd. regarding about 300,000 mt of rice.

He added that rice from India's Telangana state has become increasingly well accepted in the Philippine market and has established itself as a recognized brand among local buyers.

India's competitive pricing and ample exportable supplies could support the Philippines' longer-term strategy to diversify its rice import sources.

No agreement concluded with Vietnam for 1.5 million mt

When asked about reports of a potential 1.5 million mt rice arrangement with Vietnam, Laurel said discussions had taken place with Vietnam's Vinafood II for volumes up to 1.5 million mt, but no agreement had been reached.

"We're waiting for the next harvest," Laurel said. "It ultimately depends on the price. We're looking for a stable and reasonable price. Stability is more important."

Future rice import policy

Looking beyond the current marketing year, Laurel said a new law is being prepared to define the future direction of the Philippines' rice import policy.

The legislation is expected to introduce a combination of quantitative and qualitative restrictions, with imports intended to cover only the country's production deficit plus a modest strategic reserve while protecting Filipino farmers and improving the competitiveness of the domestic rice industry.

"Our objective is to import only enough to cover our domestic deficit and maintain a reasonable buffer," Laurel said. "At the same time, we want our local rice industry to become more competitive with imported rice."