US corn, soybean prices up after NASS planting, stock reports

US corn and soybean prices moved higher March 31, tracking Chicago Board of Trade futures after mixed market sentiment about the National Agricultural Statistics Service's annual Prospective Planting and monthly Grain Stocks reports.

"The higher corn stock data helps and is what boosted futures, while for soybeans it provides a narrative but not a shortage of buyers," said a broker source. The market was comfortable with the "sufficient supply" narrative and NASS not changing it, he added. NASS is part of the US Department of Agriculture.

NASS's Grain Stocks report showed that corn stocks were below estimates, while soybean stocks increased 10% compared with the same time last year.

Corn stocks were estimated at 9.024 billion bushels, well below the average trade estimate of 9.104 billion and below S&P Global Energy CERA's estimate of 9.108 billion. As such, the estimate indicates greater-than-expected corn used for feeding over the second quarter and suggests an upside to our 2025/26 feed and residual forecast.

"Still, the report confirms ample US corn supplies, as March 1 stocks are estimated up 11% from 2025," CERA analysts said in comments about the NASS reports.

For soybeans, the USDA estimated stocks at 2.1 billion bushels, in line with the 2.038-billion bushel estimate by CERA.

On March 31, the Chicago Board of Trade's May (K) and July (N) corn futures contracts increased by 2 cents and 0.75 cent, respectively, settling at $4.5775/bu and $4.6825/bu.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the outright price for corn CIF New Orleans for April and May shipments at $214.05/mt, with basis at 86 cents/bu over K future contracts.

Market sources confirmed after the March 31 close that trades were made for May shipments in line with prices assessed by Platts.

The outright price for corn FOB Gulf for June PMX shipments was assessed at $216.24/mt, with basis assessed to 81 cents/bu over the N corn futures contract.

CBOT soybean future contracts, meanwhile, surged by 11.25 cents for May (K) futures, closing at $11.7100/bu, and July (N) gained 11 cents to $11.8600/bu.

"Soybean futures moved higher following the report, as the market is now pricing in lower soybean production," the CERA analysts said. "However, we continue to see the oversupply of soybeans in both the US and the world, given crush capacity constraints, Brazil's growing share of world soybean exports, and China's shrinking population."

The US soybean market also saw outright prices increase after the report was released, with the export price for May shipments increasing $5.24/mt day over day to $464.44/mt, and the CIF NOLA outright export price for April shipments increasing $4.13/mt to $458.19/mt.

While some sources were puzzled by the reaction of the futures market, others said there was no strong demand or other bullish elements to factor in.

"Not extremely bullish," a trader in the FOB Gulf market said. "But more importantly, there isn't much of a reason to sell the market at the moment (from a futures trader's perspective). My guess is we will see a slight retracement tomorrow as people digest the numbers a bit."

The FOB Gulf soybean basis for May shipments increased 3 cents day over day to 93 cents/bu over the May (K) soybeans futures contract, while the CIF NOLA basis for April shipments remained steady day over day at 76 cents/bu over the May (K) futures contract.

Less US corn, more soybean acres

NASS' Prospective Planting report projects that producers surveyed across the US intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn for marketing year 2026-27 (September-August), down 3% from the previous year. While the intention for soybean growers is to plant 84.7 million acres in MY 2026-27 up year over year 4%.

"Fairly in line with expectations; really not sure why the market bought everything up as if it was bullish," a trader in the CIF NOLA market said.

The NASS report showed that acreage decreases of 300,000 acres or more from 2025 are expected in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin.

While Wisconsin will reduce by 10% its corn acres in 2026, the report showed record-high acreage expected for soybeans with 2.4 million acres, an annual increase of 18%.

For soybeans, the acreage increases from last year of 300,000 or more are expected in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wisconsin, said the report.

CERA expects 95.2 million acres to be planted for US corn in MY 2026-27, down 3.6 million acres from 2025-26 acres but an increase of 200,000 acres from January's projection.

"High corn yields last year and recently revised crop insurance provisions are encouraging farmers to keep a relatively high corn area and not cut acres as much as others were thinking due to costs," Mindy McMurtry, agriculture analyst at CERA, told Platts.

CERA expects 85 million acres to be planted for US soybeans in MY 2026-27, an annual increase of 5%.

NASS acreage estimates are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March from a sample of nearly 74,000 farm operators across the US.