US corn acreage to fall 4% on year in 2026: S&P Global Energy CERA outlook

S&P Global Energy CERA expects 95.2 million acres to be planted for US corn in 2026, down 3.6 million acres from 2025 acres but an increase of 200,000 acres from January's projection.

The reduction of 4% year over year is expected due to the need to rotate from a notably large corn area planted last year, as well as relatively high production costs for corn, said Mindy McMurtry, senior analyst at S&P Global Energy.

"While recent price movements have become slightly more favorable for additional corn plantings, higher fuel and fertilizer costs remain a concern," said McMurtry.

Matt Frostic, a Michigan farmer and the first vice president and chair of the board for the National Corn Growers Association, said at a conference on March 18, that some farmers in his area had already reduced their fertilizer use last year due to higher prices.

Frostic said that this year, farmers were given only a limited window to prepay for fertilizers and other essential inputs. Many farmers, however, did not have the necessary finances available during that short timeframe, making it difficult for them to take advantage of the prepay opportunity.

"We're going to be a victim to the high cost of fertilizers, based on just that," said Frostic, adding that "Nitrogen could be as high as another $99/acre on our crop over last year's crop. And last year, we lost $170/acre on the national acre. So it goes from bad the worst."

Over the past 50 years, the average cost to produce corn has strongly trended upward with a few notable annual declines, and farmers are going into four-year negative profits, said Gretchen Kuck, NCGA economist.

According to data from NCGA, it will cost a forecast average of $917 to plant an acre of corn in 2026, up $27/acre from 2025. The 2026 forecast cost is only 1% lower than the record of $928/acre in 2022.

Frostic said that the USDA Farmer Bridge Assistance payment only covered about 10% of his seed, fertilizer, and chemical costs in the last marketing year (September-August).

Brandon Hunt, Kentucky farmer and other NCGA board member, said that fertilizer is essential, and when supply is short, there comes a time that you pay the price in profitability, strictly attributed to yield.

Hunt also said that the impact on food prices will be expected in the mid- and long term, not in the next 30 days.

On March 13, a trade source in the poultry market said that high production costs for US corn in MY 2026-27 (September-August), driven by rising fertilizer costs from the Middle East war, will impact chicken costs by the end of 2026.

"The impact will be felt during the second harvest cycle of 2026, meaning that production costs will be somewhat high by the end of the year," the source said.