Philippines Feb rice imports, supply influx likely to keep Vietnam prices stable

Vietnamese rice prices are expected to remain stable in February as the Philippines plans to import 300,000 metric tons of rice in February, multiple market sources told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, on Jan. 19.

The Philippines will bring in 300,000 mt of rice in February, according to multiple buyers and exporters, with the volume likely to be absorbed by incoming Vietnamese winter/spring supplies. However, market participants clarified that the volume has not been entirely allocated to Vietnam and will be imported irrespective of origin.

The February import window comes as Manila moves to more tightly manage rice imports in 2026 to support domestic farmers. The Philippines Department of Agriculture said in a Dec. 16 release that rice imports in 2026 are expected to fall below 4 million mt, as domestic production is projected to reach a record high.

The government on Sept. 1 imposed an initial 60-day suspension on rice imports, which was extended by an additional 30 days on Sept. 29, and then until April 2026. However, a limited import window will allow the entry of rice to augment supply, with all shipments to arrive by February to prevent imported rice from weighing on domestic prices at the start of the summer harvest, according to the DA.

The Bureau of Plant Industry was expected to have started processing applications for around 500,000 mt before end-2026, the DA said Dec. 16. A Sanitary and Phytosanitary Import Clearance from the Bureau of Plant Industry is required for all rice importers in the Philippines before they can import.

An estimated 500,000 mt of rice imports are planned for January 2026, with about half to be sourced from Vietnam, multiple exporters and traders told Platts. However, as the allocation does not impose strict origin-based quotas, the remaining volume may be supplied from Thailand, Myanmar, India, Cambodia and Pakistan, based on price competitiveness and regulatory compliance, the sources added.

Market participants said February imports are expected to proceed without origin-based restrictions, unlike January, though the overall volume remains capped at around 300,000 mt.

"While removing origin-based restrictions is a positive step, the overall import limit is still a constraint for the market," a buyer from the Philippines said. "Buyers would have preferred the earlier policy with no volume caps, as the limit creates supply tightness and reduces flexibility in sourcing."

"Buyers are being encouraged to diversify purchases. However, 300,000 mt remains a relatively small volume," another Philippines-based buyer said.

Vietnam exported 3.2 million mt of rice to the Philippines in 2025, down 24% year over year, according to Vietnam Customs data.

Vietnamese exporters said the February imports may improve market activity, but are unlikely to lift prices materially.

"The February imports may make the market more active, but the volume is too small to drive prices higher," a Ho Chi Minh City-based exporter said. "Buyers are still bidding at low levels, and some Vietnamese exporters are continuing to offer aggressively ahead of the winter/spring crop."

Platts assessed Vietnam Fragrant 5% rice at $414/mt FOB on Jan. 19, unchanged day over day and down $16/mt month over month, while 5% white rice was assessed at $354/mt FOB, unchanged day over day and down $6/mt month over month.

Another Ho Chi Minh City-based exporter said any price impact from February imports would likely be capped by rising supply.

"I don't expect a significant impact on prices, as 300,000 mt is small compared with current stocks and the winter/spring crop entering the market in late February and March," the exporter said.

Vietnam's rice production is expected to reach 26 million mt in marketing year 2025-26 (January-December), down 3% year over year, while exports are projected at 7.7 million mt, down 5% from the previous year, according to S&P Global Energy CERA.